College Football Scheduling and its Implications by StevieY

Can a schedule that looks like a garden trip to an undefeated season actually spell doom before it gets started? If you don't leave home until October it can. The style of teams non-conference schedules vary depending on what they are trying to accomplish. Some teams want 3 or 4 "exhibition" games to pad their records, while others look to schedule tough games to get them ready for the conference season.

With the BCS, the latter is starting to fade away as teams look to stay undefeated. They schedule more games against teams that will gladly come for the payday, and that is hurting them more than scheduling a home and home with another big boy. Most teams will keep at least one competitive game in their non-conference schedule, a home and home contract with another solid team. What happens when that home game shows up the same year as a loaded home schedule? That usually brings bad news. The best example of this schedule spot happened last year. At the start of last year, many people were talking about a possible repeat by Ohio St. After all, they only had two tough road tests in Wisconsin and Michigan. People looked past Wisconsin, and with Iowa and Purdue at home, already had the Michigan game circled as the game for the national title.

So what happened? How about 5 home games to start the season. Four non-conference games in Washington, San Diego St, N Carolina St, Bowling Green and a conference game vs Northwestern takes you all the way to October 11th before they have to go on the road to a very hostile place. They went to Wisconsin and got bit by a backup QB. That made teams playing their first road game in game 6 a pathetic 2-12 SU, 4-9 ATS(2-7 as a dog) during the 12 game schedule years. I don't know any coaches that want that type of schedule. What makes that SU record so surprising is most of the teams that are able to load up on home games are usually the top teams. You won't see many 5 game home stands to start the season now that they went back to 11 game schedules, but the same held true for the playing road game #1 in the 5th game in 11 game schedules(12-18 ATS). In my opinion, there are a couple reasons why this is such a disadvantage for teams. By game 5, you are in the conference schedule, and conference road games are hard enough on their own. Also, most teams that start with such an overload at home are usually the top public teams in the country, and those home games make them look much better than they really are, giving us a few more points to work with.

Teams grow on the road, not at home. In the above, almost all of the games where they were dogs the lines were <s;= 3. Carib had Ohio St -3 vs Wisconsin in their future bets before the season started. It opened that week at OSU -2.5 so it was pretty close, but they did give you the 3. The best part is that this schedule problem will not dry up because it is more of an economic problem (and the BCS) than a coach trying to play all home games. While all teams try to set up one road non-conference game each year, sometimes they can't help it, and sometimes they are forced into it. Look at some of the late schedule changes this year. All of them were BCS or economically motivated. San Jose St had Stanford coming to town but had to move the game to Stanford so they could get paid $500,000 for their cash strapped athletic program. Passing up a home game vs a Pac 10 team because you can't afford it? W Michigan had U Conn coming to town. They bought U Conn out, found a game for U Conn to replace them, and brings Tenn Martin to town instead, all to save a measly $64,000. They always pack the stadium opening night no matter who they bring in, so lets bring in a nobody even though it hurts the program (that one came from the university, not the AD). The smaller schools will always accept a large check in place of a butt kicking, so many of the big boys will continue to have home heavy schedules. In BCS terms, Oregon bought out of their home and home with Michigan so they didn't have to go to Oklahoma and Michigan back to back. Who did Oregon replace them with? Not surpringly, a home game with Idaho. Why did Michigan let them out? Oregon paid them $500,000 to get out, which is just about what Michigan paid San Diego St to replace them. They get a free opponent with 105,000+ tickets sold.

So, who runs into the schedule problem this year? Arizona in a surprise for one. They go on the road for the first time Oct 9th at UCLA. There probably won't be much line help there unless they start well. They do have Wisconsin, Utah, and Washington St. at home so if they are competitive, we may get a lower line. Arkansas, with 4 returning starters, gets 4 in a row at home, and then the young team gets anointed to the road in the Swamp. That is bad news for the Razorbacks and may be worth a halftime bet on the Gators. Stanford is the next team. They first go on the road Oct 9th to Notre Dame, another tough place to play. I have saved the best two for last. Tennessee goes on the road for the first time to Georgia, again Oct 9th. That is a major problem. Carib has Georgia -7 right now, and unless there are some major problems with the Bulldogs from now until then, I would be shocked that the closing line Oct 9th isn't around 10. Last, but certainly not least, Oklahoma. They go to Dallas to meet Texas Oct 9th. With the weak schedule Texas has, this is their entire season. Texas wins this one and they may coast to an undefeated season. Of course, this is Texas, and they are known to find ways to lose, but if they will ever have a chance to beat Oklahoma, this is their year. Carib has Texas +7 right now, not bad to put a little on to cover the 7 in case it doesn't show up the week of Oct 9th. Again, outside of Arizona, every team is traveling to a tough place in their first road game and may be a little overvalued anyway. I don't advise playing this angle blind, but take it into consideration when you see a surprise or hot early season team when they haven't had to travel. You will usually see more value fading them than playing them.