Making a Plan; Sticking With it by Overlay

I have been wagering on NFL Football since 1974. Over the years, I've learned a few things from my experience and offer this message in the spirit of trying to help all of us become better at this game. The preseason is over and next week they begin to fire real bullets. I am sorry more of you did not take advantage of the very positive long-term opportunities presented by NFL Preseason, which in my opinion is one of the two most beatable domains of sports wagering. But that's history. So here is my annual pep talk as we each prepare for a winning season:

• You have to have a plan. Make a plan and stick to it. Don't deviate because you have one or two bad weeks. It's a long season. Nobody wins every week. You have to believe in yourself and your methodology. The time to do research is over (for this year). By now you must have completed your research and devised your strategic plan for the season. Winners believe in themselves and stick with their strategy. They understand the mathematics of wagering and the importance of wagering only when expectations are positive (+EV). Keep reminding yourself that you must take a disciplined approach even when things look gloomy. Never chase your losses. Know your long term expectations as well as you can. I was 2-7 last year in the Preseason, but I know that my long-term "career" percentage is 58% in the Preseason. So I chalk it up (and suck it up) and go to the window and make the same bets this year I made last year because I know that the method is sound and over time I will regress to the mean. When you have a good sense of your longterm expectations, you gain confidence. I never know when I am going to win, I only know that I will over the long term.
• This is a hard, mentally taxing game that reveals a great deal to you about yourself. When you are winning, you may think you will never lose again. When you are losing, you are inclined to wonder how in the world you ever won. You have to have inner toughness to win. The bookmakers count on human psychological weaknesses; they take for granted that you will bet too much when you are winning (so they get more back when you hit the inevitable losing streak), and too much when you are losing (to chase your losses). Both approaches are devastating. They also count on the player's personal dishonesty with himself or herself. They understand that the vast majority of players will overplay their bankroll and knock themselves out of action sooner or later. Can you be honest with yourself? Are you playing as if you have a $200,000 nbankroll, when you only have $10,000? Most players put 80-90 per cent of their effort into handicapping and 20 per cent or less into increasing their knowledge of wagering. This can be fatal. You must work just as hard on your wagering methods. You must understand the value of shopping and getting value.
• The oddsmakers have extremely reliable data on betting patterns. That's why the percentages on home underdogs have fallen and why preseason lines have fallen on average about 1.5 points. You MUST respect the line. They understand that the vast majority of uninformed players want to wager on "the public teams" and the winning franchises. It's awful tough to win if every week you play the glamour teams. Consider the eight wins I had in the Preseason this year, Bears, 49ers, Browns, Tennessee, Dallas, Washington, Baltimore, and Atlanta. All were underdogs, six of the eight had a losing record last year, and four of the six are generally regarded as the worst four teams in the NFL. The line between the haves and the have-nots in the NFL is very, very thin. The advantages often rest on taking advantage of public sentiment, being a contrarian.
• You MUST give up the notion that there is inside information. You win by working hard, knowing what wins over the long term, and keeping your wits about you. There are no locks, no sure things, no certainties.
• So the upshot is to be honest with yourself. If you have evidence, strong evidence, that you know what you're doing and will win on your own, go for it. If, on the other hand, you have a lingering doubt, have not done your homework, and do not have a plan, well it's getting late. Be honest with yourself. You have options. We have a number of subscribers to the NFL hosted page who turn a very, very nice profit year in and year out because they concentrate on making value wagers based on the advice of SSB Hosts. Joeflex is a good example of a person who is honest with himself and has become a winner, a signficant winner, by studying the hosts and making +EV wagers. I admire his self-honesty. Whatever you decide, I wish each of you a very profitable and enjoyable season.