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40-45-5 +19.76 units

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 23 Nov 03, 8:23 am

Iraklis +.75 -107 in Pinbet over Paok. I think Paok should be like 50-55% to win this one. Seems more like 50% to me. Let us say it is 52%. It would seem like the are going to beat Iraklis by exactly 1 goal like 30% of the time. With 1 goal loss we get something back. Even at 55% with a 30% chance of an exactly 1-goal win, this is positive EV.
The reason I do not like it is that Iraklis started the season as an overrated team. People thought they are for real and frankly I couldn't see why. Also paok's coach good for derbies.
The reasons to like it: Paok is doing it with mirrors. They are doing way better than what they should be doing based on their talent. They are overrated too. Also, Ira changed their coach which could only help us here. Also tradition is ok for Ira in Toumba.

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40-45-5 +19.76 units -- DOXARAS-4- -- 23 Nov 03, 8:23 am
Worse than a simple loser -- DOXARAS-4- -- 24 Nov 03, 1:42 pm

 


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