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Response

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 2 Aug 03, 4:39 am

In Response To: Dox what do you think of ..... (Deepwater)

I don't really think they will win it eventually but that says nowt since thet aren't like evens,they are 9/1. However it seems to be a good bet in the right odds.

I took the bet at 16/1 where Pinnacle had it before some weeks (2 weeks or less). The best line around was +1400 then (in books where you wouldn't want to have your money for months) and you could even lay it at +1300 in the exchanges. Best line at normal books was like +1000 I think.

I don't like big talkers and everything in football and it sure takes much more than a crazy millionaire to win a league. However it was incompetence IMO on the part of Pinnacle to leave the same line up once the Damien Duff transfer was confirmed. He is a huge asset for a team. Especially for Chelsea,who aren't very well known for their attacking abilities. Great winger IMO and can help as second attacker too. Then they got Glenn Johnson, I haven't seen the lad much but they say he was very good last year and rate him high in general. Not that I am in love with Melchiot but I think that Melchiot would be a starter in the Toon every time out (of course that position is a big hole for us in Newcastle) and buying someone in his position for 6M doesn't seem to be very wise (the money could possibly used in a better way). However,this is more of a theoretical problem rather than a practical one. It implies that the management isn't very competent,so won't make the most of the big asset they have (the cash of the 'crazy' Russian). When you aren't as bigtime as others are, good management is essential to do the extra step.

Now let us look at the positives: Their keeper is GREAT for the Premiership,probably the best in terms of expected performance (Niemi and Friedel are very good too but dunno if they will continue at the same standards, Given is very good and stable but somewhat limited -in the air- and I cannot see him having another flawless year like the last one, Cudicini seems the one you would expect the most from). Their defense is SUPERB for a Premiership team. I rate Gallas and Terry very high. Melchiot isn't bad and Glenn Johnson is supposed to be even better (why buy him otherwise?) and English. Wayne Bridge that they signed is ENGLISH (his biggest qualification) and not really a bad player,but overrated IMO bigtime because of being English (I have discussed the importance of being British,especially English, for English fans many times in the past). To be honest I was relieved to see another team paying a premium for this lad,because too many Toon supporters wanted him (to replace our most improved player of the year -perhaps for the whole Premiershiop too-, Olivier Bernard!!!). Who is playing there for Chelsea anyway,I think it was Babayaro,right? He should be an improvement over him to be fair to the lad. I saved the best for last: Even at 200 years old, Marcell Dessailley (or whatever his name is written) is an asset for a Premiership team. First of all he is as much a proven winner as it gets. I would keep him only for that. Additionally he loves the team (which might mean Alzhaimer is getting to him,why love such a team?) which is a bonus. I didn't think he was at all bad last year.

Now their central midfielders seem to be less than amazing,give me JJ and DYER over them any day. I think all the 3 teams above them have better players there. If they got Vieira it would be a whole different story: In one move they would sink Arse-nal forever and build a winning team. They didn't. Anyway,this is where the problems start for Chelsea: Although they do have some good attackers,their problem should still be scoring,since scoring enough to accumulate the points to win a 38-match marathon, takes a strong midfield. But Duff will add alot from his wing. Another problem is Hasselbaink,although admittedly world-class striker,he seems to be a loser,never won anything and often disappears in crucial times. A strange character in general. Will Gudjonnsen be as god as he was lasty year? He might be,but they also let Zola go. Although I think he is overrated too (any Italian playing in the Premiership seems much better than he really is), he could connect midfield with attach,because he has the brains,this is something they might lack this year.

All in all,they should still be tough,no matter how the CL will affect them (good chances for them there compared to the typical British team anyway) and if they start like last year they have much more weapons to hold on to a lead this time. However, the nature f their team dictates that we will see much better lines for them later in the year in case they are left behind even as little as 6 points. 9/1 is no bargain I think. If the midfiled isn't clicking early in the year and they present their scoring problems,whilst some other team (be it Liverpool,Manure or the Arse,or even Toon) seems impressive (and always one team seems to get public love anyway) we will find much better odds for them,whilst if they are the impressive ones, odds won't drop that dramatically from 9/1,nevermind it would be time to sell them perhaps.

I forgot the last bad element for them: Abramovic isn't exactly 'in love with' Ranieri. He wants to replace him anyway. This rarely helps (although I think Ranieri is no better than a not-too-bad coach and a bad -best you can say is bad to not-too-good- manager). Top it up with dudes like JFH and you might have another trophiless season for them. Your 9/1 isn't all that bad, but I think you should go with a better price or don't bet and wait for somehing much better later.

Good luck anyway (since I have it too but not for serious money),unless it is the Toon Chelski will be fighting with for the crown 9too good to be true).

Messages In This Thread

Dox what do you think of ..... -- Deepwater -- 1 Aug 03, 11:43 am

Response -- DOXARAS-4- -- 2 Aug 03, 4:39 am

You got lucky... -- DOXARAS-4- -- 7 Aug 03, 12:03 pm

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