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28-31-3 +12.01 units

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 22 Oct 03, 4:31 am

I am trying to find value in tonight's matches, but nothing stands out. I will have 2 with borderline (if any) value.
Man UTD to beat the Gers +100 (4-5 books, SIA,Canbet for two). This is only a small bet because Man U cannot really be too overpriced. I like the side but strugling to see why would some events not have absorbed its value: 1) Man U won again in Leeds last week. 2) Gers couldn't manage Motherwell. 3) Such matches feel much bigger for the Scots than for the English. 4) Sir Alex a supporter of Rangers. This doesn't mean he won't try to win, but perhaps will be less motivated and could pay the price.
So why like Manure then? Because they are one point down and they can't afford to lose. Even a draw could set them up for 2nd place of the group, which isn't so desirable. Anyway, this isn't the main reason, this is actually a square argument,as this must be indeed in the lines to a good extent. The 2 facors I see are: 1) I said 'Stuttgard are the kind of team that can beat manure' because they are light,young,quick etc. Gers are nothing like that. If you aren't sharp you cannot beat Manure, Gers aren't a 'sharp' team. Draw? Yep, perhaps, I certainly won't claim I discovered the moon by finding advantages of Man U compared to Rangers. It is ridiculous to claim even them aren't in the lines to a reasonable extent. But perhaps they are not to their full extent. 2) British team faces a British team. Whilst there might be no Scottish player playing or the Rangers, there are English players that start for Man U. Not that they can be bothered THAT much with such things. The key is elsewhere: I have discussed like hundreds of times how English teams underestimate nearly everybody in Europe. This has an immediate effect: They fail to qualify so many times,lose matches etc. Whilst the public often overvalues their abilities before their matches with Eastern Europeans, they are left with a belief like 'English teams are not really great teams for the European level' at the end of the day. Such beliefs are of course too lazy to see the problem: There are spots where English teams underestimate opponents by 100%,70%,50%,10%,whatever, or even spots that they are actually overestimate them. Whilst English might not overestimate THESE Gers, this match can at least be an 'everyday conversation'. This has more appeal to it to British than the match in Stuttgard (which is of course 'soccerwise moronic'). If Man U LOSES (not just fails to win) to Gers, everybody will be able to spell to whom they lost to. To tell the team off. To start talking Beckham. The 'Scot in work is making fun of me' and such crappola (amazingly enough it seems as if people from other nations don't work with English - which actually means English treat them as if they don't!!!). Anyway,point is sometimes the NAC Bredas of the world pay the price for coming from places like Holland that the English think higher of than places like Serbia. More than 'nuff' said!

Real Madrid-Partizan draw. Canbet 7.5. You can find much better in the exchanges. commentary? Well, errrr, I expect it to be a low-scoring affair:)))))
Crap, how can you explain fix? You cannot. Point is I wouldn't be laying these odds for the draw, I wouldn't even be laying 6. So I have toback 7.5. Small bet again, because they have fixed matches so many times that it is hard to believe there are people betting on Real as big favs at home still. Besides why not fix it with the away win this time? Anyway. I will go with the draw,because it serves a fix best from many counts.

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Messages In This Thread

28-31-3 +12.01 units -- DOXARAS-4- -- 22 Oct 03, 4:31 am
nulla -- DOXARAS-4- -- 23 Oct 03, 2:39 am
Aek-Osfp -- DOXARAS-4- -- 24 Oct 03, 6:15 am
Villains and ... Heroes -- DOXARAS-4- -- 25 Oct 03, 3:45 am
it hurts me but -- DOXARAS-4- -- 25 Oct 03, 3:54 am
Picks for Greek League -- DOXARAS-4- -- 26 Oct 03, 4:52 am
ok,can't help it.. -- DOXARAS-4- -- 26 Oct 03, 4:58 am
awful results -- DOXARAS-4- -- 28 Oct 03, 1:01 am
YTD should read 30-37-4 +7.57 units (nt) -- DOXARAS-4- -- 28 Oct 03, 3:01 am

 


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