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Monaco future

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 29 Sep 03, 5:37 pm

I think Canbet is really off there. +225 for Monaco to win their CL group. I say well worth tying up your money. I have this at about 40% to be honest to win the group. I would not go lower than 36-37%, actually I am almost sure 36% is way pessimistic. And it would imply 17% EV!!! Why should La Coruna be favoured by that much? They are the overall better team, allright, but they are not at their best anymore and you have to give something for the results so far. They drew in Athens to Aek (where they could have lost too), whilst Monaco won away at Eindhoven. Regardless of how the group will finish you have to regard Eindhoven as stronger than Aek. Ok, Aek has drown their 7 last CL matches and that could imply they can damage our bet this week, but make no mistake: Aek is not a good defensive team as the draws would imply, this is an aberration and it has a lot to do with their coach, but is not based on strong defensive performance. The match against Aek could be the most crucial for our bet for the reason that a Monaco win will allow them to play as they like from there on and probably give them the group. Tomorrow they will be looking to score, but if they win, then they can play the clever defense that they are capable of playing and not be in big danger. I cannot lay a team at +225 when their coach is a modern football mastermind when they started with an away win. I would perhaps like these odds even if La Coruna had started with a win! Why I bet on it? Deschamps! Some great players like Morientes. I also know Zikos who is a fine player (one od the few serious Greek footballers). Why not pass? Where is the giant tha would scare me to bet against? Depor? Very nice team but hardly a giant. What about the other two? They can take points but at least Aek cannot qualify, it would be very difficult to do so and almost impossible to finish 1st. Eindhoven could do things but they started with a home loss to Monaco, they can't be the reason one would lay off.

I am betting much more my normal unit but it is always a unit for posting purposes.

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Monaco future -- DOXARAS-4- -- 29 Sep 03, 5:37 pm
update -- DOXARAS-4- -- 30 Sep 03, 3:18 pm

 


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