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Racing Forum
negative ev?
Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 16 May 02, 6:52 am
Gary,
It’s interesting (to me, at least) that none of your winning picks satisfied your own estimate of “fair” win odds. Here are your picks that you used for either win bets or exacta bets that came in first, along with the actual payoffs:
Horse "Fair" Actual
Storm'n JR $8.00 $4.20
Aloha Bold $7.00 $6.60
Tall'st Timb $7.00 $6.40
Dizzy .........$7.00 $4.80
In 2 cases you were close, but in the other 2 cases, you were WAY below your fair odds. If your estimate of fair odds is accurate, then these bets were made at significantly negative EV.
I’m not criticizing the fact that you are including these bets in your results. You said you would do that ahead of time. (Although I do disagree with the wisdom of that decision.) I am just pointing out that based on your own estimates of a fair bet, you are apparently betting with negative EV. Taking 7-5 on a horse that you think has ¼ chance to win the race (fair 3-1) is a very bad bet. In the long run, you would lose 40% of your money. The only other conclusion (and one that you will probably be quick to agree with!) is that you are better at picking winners than estimating fair win odds. But that’s a dangerous assumption to make, IMO.
--Dunbar
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- negative ev? -- Dunbar -- 16 May 02, 6:52 am
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