Racing Forum

Let's look at that ov/un 13 bet.

Posted By: Fezzik
Date: 20 May 02, 8:14 pm

In Response To: don't agree with some of this (Dunbar)

I agree that the Pro's short-term results mean little. However, he is playing enough bets that I'm confident he will build a longer-term losing record in the not so distant future.

I also agree that your ov/und 13 was a neat example, since the average 21 game has about a .5% house win, and ov/un 13 has (I think) at least a 2.5% house edge in zero counts. So the vig is 5 times higher, but it's very beatable.

Where I disagree is that ov/un 13 is so different from 21 that it is not a fair comparison. Get a sky high count and your chance to go over 13 spikes through the roof. Just like betting roulette where you can track a wheel.

No such clear-cut advantages are occuring here. Horse racing, football, soccer, golf, baseball, baskets, etc. are all, IMO, pretty similar games from a betting perspective (Please, please posters I don't want some tirade about how good paramutual betting HELPS horse racing bettors; it doesn't, it actually makes it harder to win......if sports betting went paramutual with a 4% take our edge would take a severe hit......I think this is obvious to good sports bettors. Bottom line I understand paramutual betting, and it is a complete myth that it helps me to win since I'm not taking the houses money). Also, for every special reason/situation horse racing has special edges you can cite, I'm sure StevieY can cite a reason Hockey bettors have similar unique edges in their sport. Anyways, to get an edge on any of these games, you need to find a mispriced line. In baseball it needs to be slightly mispriced. In horse racing, at -18% take-out it needs to be grossly mispriced. Yes, you have longshot bets in all of them, but the concepts are pretty similar.

I think a bettor example is playing 21 with blackjacks pay 6-5. Here you have a similar game with a house take-out of over 1.5% instead of .5%. Try to overcome this with conventional playing methods, and you have a tough rode ahead. Start hole carding or sequencing, and you can win. But "by the book" doing your homework counting without a ridiculous bet spread and you are going to kiss the baby. And you can do those neat hole carding bets vs. legit games; you might find a 6-5 game with a hole-carder; but it's probably no more likely.

Bottom line, I walk into the small sports/giant race book. Why is that Race book so big? Since there is so much money being made per dollar bet there, with no risk to the house. And there are dozens of stiffs playing day after day after day after day, betting many bets per race, religously following their racing forms, and getting clobbered. Most of these misguided souls are comparable to baccaret players who think they can find an edge by tracking patterns. The difference is that it is of course possible for the horse players to have an edge. But I'd guess that it's 20 times more likely for a randomly chosen bettor to be a winning sports bettor than for them to be a winning race bettor. And the reason is SOLELY due to that sky high vig.

Playing into that high vig, I'm convinced someone without inside info. has to be very, very sharp to win. And I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to identify statements from some people that will disqualify them from being in that category.

Messages In This Thread

Oh boy- -- D -- 19 May 02, 8:57 pm

Thank you D! You've pretty much answered for me, 1 note -- Fezzik -- 20 May 02, 9:41 am

don't agree with some of this -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 2:37 pm

Let's look at that ov/un 13 bet. -- Fezzik -- 20 May 02, 8:14 pm

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