[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

Racing Forum

What Odds to Bet Into

Posted By: Jesse F. Knight
Date: 20 May 02, 4:22 pm

In Response To: point Fezzik (ricky)

I most certainly do not put myself among the experts; however, I would make these two points.

Most of the people I've talked to at the race track who make a living betting on horses or who are trying to tell me that they tend to focus on longer odds horses. Not long shots, necessarily, but in the range of 5-1, 6-1, 7-1, and 8-1. Although it is a backhanded way of saying it, I would think that would substantiate what Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth's point about favorites being overbet.

As for a database of information substantiating that, I imagine, given a large enough database, it is true. However, I would put out there one caveat. It has been my observation that the bigger the track the more often favorites win. Take for instance Santa Anita. More favorites win there than, let's say, at Portland Meadows. I suspect that this is because they have a far higher caliber of runner at S.A. than at P.M., and hence those horses are more consistent. S.A. routinely has claiming races of 40k or 50k and more. P. M. on the other hand has few claiming races of more than 10k. So I would say this is a case where a bettor should examine the track or tracks he wants to bet on first to see how favorites run in his neighborhood.

Jesse F. Knight

Password:

Messages In This Thread

rethinking Triple Crown no bet -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 9:00 pm
Your "no tc" bet is safe, IMO -- Another Anon -- 19 May 02, 9:27 pm
Magic Weisner -- D -- 19 May 02, 9:31 pm
Don't think so -- StevieY -- 20 May 02, 11:28 am
War Emblem likely won't be even money, and -- Fezzik -- 19 May 02, 9:53 pm
Are horse racing markets efficient enough-- -- D -- 19 May 02, 10:19 pm
completely illogical -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 10:44 pm
you're both right, to a degree -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 3:33 am
I don't think it's illogical at all. -- Fezzik -- 20 May 02, 9:23 am
Patriots money line -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 9:35 am
stats -- Duece -- 20 May 02, 6:59 pm
Useless stats -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 9:16 pm
Disagree, Seenmore -- patrick -- 21 May 02, 8:13 am
Only my experience Patrick -- seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 21 May 02, 10:03 am
Derby Trial -- Don Peszynski -- 21 May 02, 11:39 am
Even a little more recent -- StevieY -- 21 May 02, 12:15 pm
Walk down memory lane -- Duece -- 21 May 02, 1:42 pm
Place and Show -- StevieY -- 22 May 02, 9:09 am
Thanks for the info. (nt) -- Duece -- 22 May 02, 6:02 pm
Variations on a Theme -- Rusty Starfish -- 23 May 02, 10:37 am
Extremely dated information=pure garbage -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:19 pm
Answer the question -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:23 pm
Edit -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:28 pm
point Fezzik -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 3:37 pm
What Odds to Bet Into -- Jesse F. Knight -- 20 May 02, 4:22 pm
i also assume ... -- davie -- 20 May 02, 8:18 am
You should have done heavy shopping. -- Math Boy -- 20 May 02, 6:55 am
do you mean "uncomfortable"? -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 9:34 am
Yeah (nt) -- Math Boy -- 20 May 02, 10:31 am
Your NO TC Play.... -- bhead -- 20 May 02, 11:55 am

 


Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Picks Post?
Message:

If you'd like to include a link to another page with your message,
please provide both the URL address and the title of the page:

Optional Link URL:
Optional Link Title:

If you'd like to have the option of deleting your post later,
please provide a password (CASE SENSITIVE!):

Password:

If you'd like e-mail notification of responses, please check this box:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

Racing Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press