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don't agree with some of this

Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 20 May 02, 2:37 pm

In Response To: Thank you D! You've pretty much answered for me, 1 note (Fezzik)

The Pro does not think an 18% take-out is such a big factor. I'm not going to waste my time explaining the obvious; it is of course a huge factor.

This I agree with.

When the Pro adds up his 2002 performance and winds up losing 5-18% of his invested money, I'll be the first to remind him that he would have won vs. a more beatable game with a 5% take-out.

Are you going to congratulate him if he shows a profit? I won't, nor will I remind him about anything if he loses. His fluctuations are going to be so huge the way he is betting that his final results won't mean much. Besides that, if he falls way behind, he, like almost everyone else on these pages, will stop posting his picks and his records.

The fact that the Pro does not see individual matchups at low vig. -120/+100 etc. as likely more attractive bets is a red flag, IMO. It's like a sports bettor laying -110 only when a reputable shop allows first half bets at -102. If someone give me -102 at ANYTHING, I'm going to start handicapping that sport like a madman.

Fezzik principle of sports betting and day trading: "The lower the vigorish the harder it is for a day trader/bettor to lose. Drop the vig enough and almost anyone will be able to win with any training/mentoring. Raise the vig enough and virtually no one will be able to win. Anyone who poo-poos this is in highly technical terms "nuts".

I don't think you should get too hardline on this idea that lower initial vig means better results. The relation between initial vig and ultimate profit is not that tight. One bet with a huge house edge was the over/under 13 bet at blackjack. But a successful "handicapper" was able to turn that bet into something much more profitable than traditional card counting, even though the "vig" in traditional card counting is WAY lower.

--Dunbar

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Messages In This Thread

Oh boy- -- D -- 19 May 02, 8:57 pm
Thank you D! You've pretty much answered for me, 1 note -- Fezzik -- 20 May 02, 9:41 am
don't agree with some of this -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 2:37 pm
Let's look at that ov/un 13 bet. -- Fezzik -- 20 May 02, 8:14 pm

 


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