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Patriots money line

Posted By: ricky
Date: 20 May 02, 9:35 am

In Response To: I don't think it's illogical at all. (Fezzik)

"Whenever an event occurs that brings in millions of public dollars, it is usually correct to assume the public will bring a tidal wave of money onto the favorite. "

actually I can think of at least one very recent multi-million dollar gambling event where the public put huge money on the UNDERDOG! Patriots against Rams money line. The public wanted to put money on a dog paying 5-1, paying 4.5-1, all the way down to 4-1 at many places. Right or wrong, they wanted to get paid if they hit. If the Super Bowl public bettors and the Belmont public bettors are the same population, will they be happy to bet an even money horse? Or do they want the second and third favorites at 4-1? or longshots at 10-1 / 20-1? I do not agree that it is 100% that the public will be all over the favorite in this case. in fact, in the absence of any other information (I'd really like to hear from horse experts in this case, not sports experts), I would say there's no reason to believe this is any different than another regular race with quality horses during the weekends.

the data does not say anything about Triple Crown races. I concede Triple Crown races could be different...but I would not be willing to drop it form 45% down to 40% without hearing from horse experts and their opinion of the differences between Triple Crown races and regular races. In fact, I'd keep it right at 45% with the information I currently have.

But the bottomline is this : whether the true odds is 45% or 40%, no hedging should be done. this is simply an intellectual exercise at this point.

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Messages In This Thread

rethinking Triple Crown no bet -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 9:00 pm
Your "no tc" bet is safe, IMO -- Another Anon -- 19 May 02, 9:27 pm
Magic Weisner -- D -- 19 May 02, 9:31 pm
Don't think so -- StevieY -- 20 May 02, 11:28 am
War Emblem likely won't be even money, and -- Fezzik -- 19 May 02, 9:53 pm
Are horse racing markets efficient enough-- -- D -- 19 May 02, 10:19 pm
completely illogical -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 10:44 pm
you're both right, to a degree -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 3:33 am
I don't think it's illogical at all. -- Fezzik -- 20 May 02, 9:23 am
Patriots money line -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 9:35 am
stats -- Duece -- 20 May 02, 6:59 pm
Useless stats -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 9:16 pm
Disagree, Seenmore -- patrick -- 21 May 02, 8:13 am
Only my experience Patrick -- seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 21 May 02, 10:03 am
Derby Trial -- Don Peszynski -- 21 May 02, 11:39 am
Even a little more recent -- StevieY -- 21 May 02, 12:15 pm
Walk down memory lane -- Duece -- 21 May 02, 1:42 pm
Place and Show -- StevieY -- 22 May 02, 9:09 am
Thanks for the info. (nt) -- Duece -- 22 May 02, 6:02 pm
Variations on a Theme -- Rusty Starfish -- 23 May 02, 10:37 am
Extremely dated information=pure garbage -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:19 pm
Answer the question -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:23 pm
Edit -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:28 pm
point Fezzik -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 3:37 pm
What Odds to Bet Into -- Jesse F. Knight -- 20 May 02, 4:22 pm
i also assume ... -- davie -- 20 May 02, 8:18 am
You should have done heavy shopping. -- Math Boy -- 20 May 02, 6:55 am
do you mean "uncomfortable"? -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 9:34 am
Yeah (nt) -- Math Boy -- 20 May 02, 10:31 am
Your NO TC Play.... -- bhead -- 20 May 02, 11:55 am

 


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