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I don't think it's illogical at all.

Posted By: Fezzik
Date: 20 May 02, 9:23 am

In Response To: completely illogical (ricky)

You might tell me 49.5% of all College Basketball 15 point favorites cover their games. We we expect the same percentage of 15 point favorites in National Championship Games to cover?

Whenever an event occurs that brings in millions of public dollars, it is usually correct to assume the public will bring a tidal wave of money onto the favorite.

Given WE goes off at 1-1, perhaps a 40% estimate of his chance to win might not be correct, but it is not illogical at all to tweak our .91 x.50 estimate downward from 45% to 40%. Certainly, it's obvious to me I don't want to raise it upward. What does the data say about horses that win the first two legs of the Triple Crown, re: their performance in the 3rd leg? I'm expect these horses to have horrible value ATS. I could be wrong, but I'd be very surprised.

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Messages In This Thread

rethinking Triple Crown no bet -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 9:00 pm
Your "no tc" bet is safe, IMO -- Another Anon -- 19 May 02, 9:27 pm
Magic Weisner -- D -- 19 May 02, 9:31 pm
Don't think so -- StevieY -- 20 May 02, 11:28 am
War Emblem likely won't be even money, and -- Fezzik -- 19 May 02, 9:53 pm
Are horse racing markets efficient enough-- -- D -- 19 May 02, 10:19 pm
completely illogical -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 10:44 pm
you're both right, to a degree -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 3:33 am
I don't think it's illogical at all. -- Fezzik -- 20 May 02, 9:23 am
Patriots money line -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 9:35 am
stats -- Duece -- 20 May 02, 6:59 pm
Useless stats -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 9:16 pm
Disagree, Seenmore -- patrick -- 21 May 02, 8:13 am
Only my experience Patrick -- seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 21 May 02, 10:03 am
Derby Trial -- Don Peszynski -- 21 May 02, 11:39 am
Even a little more recent -- StevieY -- 21 May 02, 12:15 pm
Walk down memory lane -- Duece -- 21 May 02, 1:42 pm
Place and Show -- StevieY -- 22 May 02, 9:09 am
Thanks for the info. (nt) -- Duece -- 22 May 02, 6:02 pm
Variations on a Theme -- Rusty Starfish -- 23 May 02, 10:37 am
Extremely dated information=pure garbage -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:19 pm
Answer the question -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:23 pm
Edit -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:28 pm
point Fezzik -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 3:37 pm
What Odds to Bet Into -- Jesse F. Knight -- 20 May 02, 4:22 pm
i also assume ... -- davie -- 20 May 02, 8:18 am
You should have done heavy shopping. -- Math Boy -- 20 May 02, 6:55 am
do you mean "uncomfortable"? -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 9:34 am
Yeah (nt) -- Math Boy -- 20 May 02, 10:31 am
Your NO TC Play.... -- bhead -- 20 May 02, 11:55 am

 


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