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you're both right, to a degree

Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 20 May 02, 3:33 am

In Response To: completely illogical (ricky)

For you to simply wave it off and say that horses and sports follow the same public money chasing favorites and use your own guess of 40% if he closes at 1/1 is ludicrous, completely illogical and void of rational reasoning.

You are correct that horse racing markets are pretty efficient overall. 1-1 horses come in first pretty close to the % of times predicted by their odds, after adjusting for the track takeout.

But Fezzik didn't say that ALL heavy favorites are overbet to that degree. He said that this horse, War Emblem, will be overbet. This is plausible, given the intense desire of horse fans to see a Triple Crown winner. So Fezzik has given his estimate of the fair odds on War Emblem. For you to say that Fezzik's idea is ludicrous is the same as saying that no horse can ever be worth a bet. That is, no horse's fair odds will ever deviate from the betting public's estimate of that horse's chance to win the race.

--Dunbar

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Messages In This Thread

rethinking Triple Crown no bet -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 9:00 pm
Your "no tc" bet is safe, IMO -- Another Anon -- 19 May 02, 9:27 pm
Magic Weisner -- D -- 19 May 02, 9:31 pm
Don't think so -- StevieY -- 20 May 02, 11:28 am
War Emblem likely won't be even money, and -- Fezzik -- 19 May 02, 9:53 pm
Are horse racing markets efficient enough-- -- D -- 19 May 02, 10:19 pm
completely illogical -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 10:44 pm
you're both right, to a degree -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 3:33 am
I don't think it's illogical at all. -- Fezzik -- 20 May 02, 9:23 am
Patriots money line -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 9:35 am
stats -- Duece -- 20 May 02, 6:59 pm
Useless stats -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 9:16 pm
Disagree, Seenmore -- patrick -- 21 May 02, 8:13 am
Only my experience Patrick -- seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 21 May 02, 10:03 am
Derby Trial -- Don Peszynski -- 21 May 02, 11:39 am
Even a little more recent -- StevieY -- 21 May 02, 12:15 pm
Walk down memory lane -- Duece -- 21 May 02, 1:42 pm
Place and Show -- StevieY -- 22 May 02, 9:09 am
Thanks for the info. (nt) -- Duece -- 22 May 02, 6:02 pm
Variations on a Theme -- Rusty Starfish -- 23 May 02, 10:37 am
Extremely dated information=pure garbage -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:19 pm
Answer the question -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:23 pm
Edit -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:28 pm
point Fezzik -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 3:37 pm
What Odds to Bet Into -- Jesse F. Knight -- 20 May 02, 4:22 pm
i also assume ... -- davie -- 20 May 02, 8:18 am
You should have done heavy shopping. -- Math Boy -- 20 May 02, 6:55 am
do you mean "uncomfortable"? -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 9:34 am
Yeah (nt) -- Math Boy -- 20 May 02, 10:31 am
Your NO TC Play.... -- bhead -- 20 May 02, 11:55 am

 


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