Racing Forum

rethinking Triple Crown no bet

Posted By: ricky
Date: 19 May 02, 9:00 pm

let's pretend I had the foresight to know that he'd go off at 2.8-1 (26.3%). from an email that I got from a poster, I was forced to rethink and look at the Ziemba book and I found an article in there that basically shows that a 2.8-1 shot has a return of roughly 90% on the dollar. so that to me tells me that the horse wasn't 26.3% but was really 23.6%.

now if we know that he will be even money in the belmont given he wins the preakness, the same article tells us that even money horses have a return roughly 91%, so his 50% gets dropped down to 45.5%.

23.6% x 45.5% is 10.7% which is 8.3-1
laying 9.5-1 was a poor bet given these scenarios.

but originally, I thought the horse would go off at 4-1, based on other people's opinions, not mine. Given 4-1, its 20%, which would reall ybe 18%. 18% x 45.5% is 8.19%...11.2-1. i was pretty happy with the estimate of 4-1, and since the morning line was 3.5-1 (the odds would be 10-1, making the no bet breakeven), that wasn't so bad. but the question is how comfortable was I with the 4-1 estimate? Based off of all information I received, I was ok with it....and ok with the 1.5% or so that I thought I was getting, knowing full well that a small change in the odds (3.5-1 to 3-1) would make it a none positive bet. but the main thing was that I thought even with this I was being conservative in that favorites are usually overbet....and thus I had a cushion to lean on. But in retrospect, there was no cushion, once I looked at the Ziemba book.

From the Ziemba book, an article shows a graph of edge lost vs odds. the graph clearly reveals that favorites lose less edge than underdogs do...meaning that an even money horse is only losing 9%, but a 20-1 shot is losing 30%. This is very different than humans, which is what I was basing my assumptions on that the favorite is overbet (same thing that Fezzik has said). But this is clearly wrong, which means that my cushion was no longer there...the cushion of the calculations above being conservative...in fact the calcluations weren't conservative at all, and they bordered on being aggressive.

too bad I didn't think carefully, or get the emails or read the posts regarding this beforehand. but at worst, I would have thought my bet was still fair value. with the info I had, i was fine with it. but some of my info was wrong. well, next year, i'll know better and adjust odds accordingly.

Messages In This Thread

rethinking Triple Crown no bet -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 9:00 pm

Your "no tc" bet is safe, IMO -- Another Anon -- 19 May 02, 9:27 pm

Magic Weisner -- D -- 19 May 02, 9:31 pm

Don't think so -- StevieY -- 20 May 02, 11:28 am

War Emblem likely won't be even money, and -- Fezzik -- 19 May 02, 9:53 pm

Are horse racing markets efficient enough-- -- D -- 19 May 02, 10:19 pm

completely illogical -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 10:44 pm

you're both right, to a degree -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 3:33 am

I don't think it's illogical at all. -- Fezzik -- 20 May 02, 9:23 am

Patriots money line -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 9:35 am

stats -- Duece -- 20 May 02, 6:59 pm

Useless stats -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 9:16 pm

Disagree, Seenmore -- patrick -- 21 May 02, 8:13 am

Only my experience Patrick -- seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 21 May 02, 10:03 am

Derby Trial -- Don Peszynski -- 21 May 02, 11:39 am

Even a little more recent -- StevieY -- 21 May 02, 12:15 pm

Walk down memory lane -- Duece -- 21 May 02, 1:42 pm

Place and Show -- StevieY -- 22 May 02, 9:09 am

Thanks for the info. (nt) -- Duece -- 22 May 02, 6:02 pm

Variations on a Theme -- Rusty Starfish -- 23 May 02, 10:37 am

Extremely dated information=pure garbage -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:19 pm

Answer the question -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:23 pm

Edit -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 20 May 02, 2:28 pm

point Fezzik -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 3:37 pm

What Odds to Bet Into -- Jesse F. Knight -- 20 May 02, 4:22 pm

i also assume ... -- davie -- 20 May 02, 8:18 am

You should have done heavy shopping. -- Math Boy -- 20 May 02, 6:55 am

do you mean "uncomfortable"? -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 9:34 am

Yeah (nt) -- Math Boy -- 20 May 02, 10:31 am

Your NO TC Play.... -- bhead -- 20 May 02, 11:55 am

Racing Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press