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For the record, I like the Pro. But I don't want people losing $$

Posted By: Fezzik
Date: 18 May 02, 12:37 am

I think Gary knows a great deal about horse racing. He also is an excellent writer. I have no doubt that I would enjoy having a drink with him. And I think these threads are some of the most stimulating we have had for some time here. Without them, I likely would have passed on the Preakness. Instead, I was able to bet six figures on the "no, WarE not to win the triple crown" at -1000 to -900. So Gary should indirectly be responsible for me winning over $1,000. A hearty thank-you to the Pro.

Having said all that, yes I'm going to be completely intolerant here at SHARP sports betting towards those making picks, who also tout that they are great experts, and yet making inconsistent picks that people might follow and lose their hard earned money. Gary, tells me I'm dabbling into stuff I don't know anything about. And he's been doing this forever successfully. In the thread below both Dunbar and I independently are using HIS probabilities to assess the chance of the 1. Medaglio 2. War Emblem exacta hitting. We both independently got 2% using the Pro's own parameters. Neither of us needs any horse racing competence; we are just plugging the provided parameters into the obvious formula. Even bumping our 2% estimate of the exacta chance (based on the Pro's given probablities) an impossibly ridiculous 3fold to 6%, it's still a big negative bet. We are both still awaiting a logical mathematical response.

I cannot believe we are arguing about something so obvious. Gary says both Medaglia AND War Emblem are horribly overvalued. Yet, despite this he thinks the exacta bet on those two horse has plus expectation. To draw a football example, this would be like me telling you "Bet the 49ers and the Bengals, but also make a two-team parlay consisting of both of their opponents. You disagree? You guys just don't understand how Parlays work!"

.......apologies to all for my intolerant attitude on all of this. I'd much rather be an unpopular intolerant guy and have us win here, than be a politically correct Polly-Anna, and watch some of us lose.

Ps. I REALLY like that "no" prop on War Emblem to win the Triple Crown. I had dinner with the most successful sports bettor I know, and he agreed that this was as obvious a bet as he has seen in some time. Having said that, standard caveat: There is no such thing as a lock bet. Almost any horse entered could theoretically win the next two races. Never overbet your bankroll no matter how good a bet is.

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Messages In This Thread

For the record, I like the Pro. But I don't want people losing $$ -- Fezzik -- 18 May 02, 12:37 am
Was this a test?? -- Don Peszynski -- 18 May 02, 9:23 am
Ok- Don-- i missed that too-- -- D -- 18 May 02, 9:42 am
I'm guessing fez will be a little nervous if War Emblem wins today -- Dunbar -- 18 May 02, 10:55 am
" Dinner companion " -- Mike Keno -- 18 May 02, 11:29 am
Oops.....correction 5 figures bet only! It was late last night. (nt) -- Fezzik -- 18 May 02, 1:26 pm
A good thing it was only 5 figures......... (nt) -- Fezzik -- 18 May 02, 3:59 pm

 


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