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Gary-- (long response)

Posted By: D
Date: 17 May 02, 6:02 pm

You stated, "I should just continue on skewed results or not skewed results. But, don't anyone come back at me and say, 'yeah, but take away that big win in X race, and your ROI wouldn't be so good'."

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We all do different things during the year-- that probably take away from our 'optimum' results. I gamble way too much on certain sports- on certain events- in certain spots-- and i know that. I enjoy the gamble-- and that's certainly my prerogative. That being said- if i were to keep updated records on here (and I did for a full season on Colin and Fez's basketball page)- of how i was doing- i would make every attempt to bet 'optimally' with respect to every RECORDED wager.

In other words- there were times i bet 'double' units on certain events just for the gamble- or on a 'hunch'-- however- i never recorded those deviations in my results-- because they were just that-
deviations from what i considered to be ultimately- optimal.

Thats part of what goes along with having your results scrutinized so closely. Perhaps having to justify every wager-- or the reasoning behind every wager. I personally enjoyed the challenge- and it allowed me to track my results and become more disciplined.

Let me give one example:

I- in past years- always bet more on ncaa tournament games in basketball- then regular season games. Why? No mathematical reason- at all. But in documenting my results- i realized that not only was betting more probably not optimal-- but it was also- undisciplined- and to take it a step further-- unreasonable-- in a lot of cases.

Point is this:
Do whatever you feel like doing :). But perhaps if the results of three races will skew your overall results so much- you should step back- and re-evaluate your betting goals and practices for triple crown races-- even if it simply relates to your results on these pages.

I know you're trying to represent as accurately as possible your actual results. But for the purposes of this page- perhaps- you should re-evaluate your bet sizing for triple crown races?

I've got as much gamble in me as anybody-- but for the purposes of documenting my results on these pages-- i wanted to be as disciplined-
and professional as possible.

Just my $0.02-- as Colin likes to say-- and some may dis-agree-- but I look forward to your comments- and the discussion to follow- as always.

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Gary-- (long response) -- D -- 17 May 02, 6:02 pm

 


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