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My Preakness line and comments

Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 17 May 02, 7:41 am

Here are my estimates of fair odds for the Preakness. Let me say immediately that I have no established winning record as a handicapper. Also, I have not put much time into coming up with these numbers, because I do not expect to see much value in betting the race. If I had been the only one to notice Medaglia d’ Oro’s bad trip, AND if Medaglia d’ Oro had finished a little closer than 8 lengths behind the leader, that would be different. I would have him at longer than 7-2 if they had not made the switch to Bailey.


Medaglia d' Oro	3.5

Harlan's Hol	7

War Emblem	3

Proud Citizen	8

Booklet	....... 30

Equality     	12

Crimson Hero	30

Easyfromtheget	50

USS tinosa	12

Magic Weisner	50

Straight Gin	75

Menacing Den	200

The horses I would bet to win if they are going off at better than those odds are: Medaglia d’ Oro (very unlikely), Harlan’s Holiday (possible), War Emblem (possible), Proud Citizen (unlikely), Equality (very possible) and USS Tinosa (possible). The horses most likely to be offered above those odds are War Emblem, Equality and USS tinosa. If no horse is offered above those odds, I won’t bet. If the track is muddy or sloppy, I won’t bet.

If Equality goes off at 15-1, and I bet him, I am not betting him because I think he will win the race. In fact, I assume I will lose 12 out of 13 such bets. I am betting him because I think he has at least a 7.7% chance to win the race. (12-1 fair odds means a 1/13th chance to win the race, = 7.7%) Getting 15-1 on a horse with an 7.7% chance to win the race amounts to an EV of:

EV = (7.7% * 15) + (92.3% * -1) = 23%.

That being said, I don’t understand why everyone is ignoring Equality. He has been improving steadily to where his Beyer speed figures compare well with the rest of the field (not including War Emblem). He has shown that he can sit behind the front runners and win. And he had a troubled trip in his last outing, yet still came on strong for 2nd (and earned a respectable 100 Beyer). He has performed well at a mile-and-a-sixteenth; it remains to be seen if he can carry it another furlong. This is a tougher bunch than he has faced before, but winning a Grade 3 is not negligible. I think Equality will be an overlay.

I pretty much agree with StevieY about War Emblem. For all we know right now, this horse may be a monster. Or he may be a one-dimensional front winner who can’t take the heat. We’ll find out Saturday, and I’ll have money on him if I can get him at 7-2.

I guess I should say something about units, so that I can report my results in case I ever make another “pick” For horses with “fair odds” under 5-1, I’ll bet 1 unit. For horses with fair odds between 6-1 and 10-1, I’ll bet ½ unit. For horses with fair odds between 11-1 and 20-1, I’ll bet ¼ unit.

--Dunbar

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Messages In This Thread

My Preakness line and comments -- Dunbar -- 17 May 02, 7:41 am
My results -- Dunbar -- 19 May 02, 8:12 am

 


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