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About dogs..

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 15 Jun 02, 7:07 pm

In Response To: So a question for you DOX.. (Sluicebox)

Kalimera kai se sena (good morning to you too)!

Well generally it is a little more complicated than that,but when there is value in soccer allmost allways it is on dogs (not that big though).The first round of the World Cup is the best opportunity there is about soccer betting.The reason is that the public tends to over-over-over-over estimate the value of the motivation.You see they judge from the leagues and their favourite teams (clubs).In leagues like Italy Serie B,Italy Serie A,La liga (Spain),Greece and many other leagues it is way too often that a team than needs the points (the win or draw) will get them this way or another (one team playing to the maximum and the other not and most of the times uz the other team would not want to play the maximum).Why would they do this???Becuz they put the club above the league or the sport,they think (and it is damn true) that if they 'help; someone sometime they might be helped in the future.You see we are not talking about American leagues,there is a thing called RELEGATION in most Soccer leagues.
There is another thing called Champions League where the big money is and you can only go there if you do well in your country (every year the teams that participate there refresh,unlike American leagues...).

This stuff has poisoned people's brains.
They say:Croatia needs the win to advance to second round for the World Cup and most posibly will get it and bet Croatia at -200 or lower.Unfuckingbelievable.The line for them should be like +140!The line for Ecuador could be found up to +800 here in Greece,whilst the true line shoulda been like +240 MAXIMUM.The Croaia team was ridiculous,even a team from Sharpsportsbetting could beat them.

I have 100ns of examples.The point would not be 'bet the dog everytime' for sure,BUT if you watch soccer for like 2-3 years fanatically (like 120 matches a year from the good leagues, not that many) you will be able to tell some big value bets,I am sure.

You want another that won?I will give you one:Japan beat Tynusia and people here in greece were betting it at -400.LOLOLOLLOLOL.oK THEY SURE WON,AND YES PEOPLE were right that referees will help Japan win,but let us just get real:Any line under -140 could in no way have value in it.It was the same people that were beting against Tynusia with Belgium and the draw destroyed them.Betting favs isn't the way to go in soccer for sure.

The value in WC is most of the time when 2 teams play and one of them is bad and the other isn't that good.People would think that the less bad will win it and if there is the motivation (advances to next rd) they will jump on it.Even sites like worldwager with ridiculous socer lines can make money this way.You should see e-v-e-r-y-b-o-d-y betting USA vs Poland at +100. 25% of all the book's action for the day was on this match and 95% of that was on USA!Whilst the fair line should be like +180!!!Why?Becuz no matter what Poland is still better than USA but not that much.But they needed to avoid humiliation.Plus the Americans would underestimate them.Plus the referee could (and would and did) make the arrangements so that USA loses so that Korea would be sure to advance.Plus Poland has only ONE PLAY:wait for youto come to them so that Olisadebe has the place to do the break and score.This way did they advance to the WC,they waited everybody playing defensively and from there theyatacked with 'fast breaks'.They could not do that in first 2 matches cause they were supposed to chase the goal to win in a try to advance,but they could do that vs the USA.

A suggestion would be:Don't try soccer unless you watch it very much and listen to nobody but yourself.And of course,search for places like Pinnacle with low juice on sides and bet only them.

Another good chance are parlays in situations like the World Cup.
I had 2 parlays with Belgium +190,Korea +295,Poland +350,Germany -150, and the draw of japan at like +235.Ono of the parlays had germany out and the other had Poland out.Obviously both lost due to Japan winning.If they did draw I would win (betting less than $100 total) more than $11000!!!And I can assure you that much of it would be value because of Poland's (and Korea's) bets.

At least I have another open but is too damn unlikely:If Ireland wins tomorrow I will get like $4000 with $33.

Messages In This Thread

6/9/02 WC picks... -- roadkill -- 8 Jun 02, 11:18 pm

6/10/02 WC picks -- roadkill -- 10 Jun 02, 12:42 am

3-1, +2.15 units (nt) -- roadkill -- 10 Jun 02, 6:48 pm

6/11/02 picks...bye France, Irland -- roadkill -- 10 Jun 02, 7:29 pm

Lack of Irish firepower -- John May -- 11 Jun 02, 3:09 am

3-1, +2 units -- roadkill -- 11 Jun 02, 6:49 pm

WC 6/12/02 picks UNDER.... -- roadkill -- 11 Jun 02, 7:10 pm

pounded 2-5, -4.15 units -- Roadkill -- 12 Jun 02, 9:27 pm

6/13/02 WC picks... -- Roadkill -- 12 Jun 02, 9:46 pm

correction... -- Roadkill -- 12 Jun 02, 10:21 pm

3-2, +1.25 units -- roadkill -- 13 Jun 02, 10:09 pm

6/14/02 WC picks -- roadkill -- 13 Jun 02, 10:17 pm

I did it, 0-5, -5.3 units.... -- roadkill -- 14 Jun 02, 10:47 pm

Not trying to bust your balls but... -- DOXARAS-4- -- 15 Jun 02, 9:38 am

So a question for you DOX.. -- Sluicebox -- 15 Jun 02, 9:59 am

About dogs.. -- DOXARAS-4- -- 15 Jun 02, 7:07 pm

Ireland/Spain -- TrendMan -- 16 Jun 02, 2:23 pm

Unfortunately... -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Jun 02, 7:09 pm

agree with.... -- Spongebob squarepants -- 16 Jun 02, 2:44 pm

I generally agree.... -- roadkill -- 15 Jun 02, 10:52 pm

What I am trying to do.. -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Jun 02, 7:04 pm

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