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Suggestion

Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 13 May 02, 6:39 am

Well, it's not the secret, but it is the optimal way to make sure your horse remains an overlay. In addition by waiting until the final minute, you will find some overlays that the morning line didn't indicate existed. But, I don't have the luxury of waiting until the final minute to make a public post, so I post those that I think will for sure go off at odds above their probability of winning. of course sometimes I'm wrong and the odds drop. Hopefully the players will realize the odds are no longer an overlay, but if not at least they can be pretty sure they are on a hot horse.

I know of no way to make public selections, and guarantee the final odds are going to make that selection an overlay.

Do you feel I am in someway misleading others by giving picks 12-24hrs before post? If so, what would you suggest?

baba.looey makes a good point. A partial solution is for you to give the odds at which you think the horse is worth a bet. For the purpose of keeping tabs on your record, you can use the final odds to see if your bet criterion has been met, even though the rest of us would be relying on the odds 1-2 minutes before post time. This will only work for win bets. For exotics and place bets, we would have to consider every bet as made, even though it would still be good to have a cutoff for the exotics.

For example, instead of just picking Medaglia D' Oro to win the Preakness, you would add something like "at 3-1 or better".

Thanks for the charts link. Didn't know about that. Are these race notes independent of those done by DRF?

--Dunbar

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Suggestion -- Dunbar -- 13 May 02, 6:39 am

 


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