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First cut

Posted By: James
Date: 21 Oct 03, 11:07 am

In Response To: Salami Query... (Doug)

assume the Salami is distributed as a Poisson variable, and use SW's "Prop Tools" from the left bar to compare lines.

One way to do this is to type in an estimate for the mean number of goals scored (e.g. 21.3) and look at the moneylines for the lines you are comparing.

In this case with 21.3 goals expected, the Poisson calculator says that over 20.5 -119 is breakeven, as is over 21 +100. So the half goal here is worth about 19 cents by this estimate. Since you got 25 cents, you made the "right" choice that didn't work out this time.

The half goal will be slightly more valuable if there are less games on the schedule, and slightly less valuable on a full hockey day.

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Messages In This Thread

Salami Query... -- Doug -- 21 Oct 03, 5:05 am
First cut -- James -- 21 Oct 03, 11:07 am
Thank You, James... -- Doug -- 21 Oct 03, 11:45 am

 


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