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Colin, any updates to Monte Carlo sim?

Posted By: James
Date: 20 Aug 01, 8:00 am

Ideally including
1) actual playoff qualifying rules. This would also give prob of division win as a by-product.
2) some estimate of variability of numbers, at least by running two sims to compare results.

Actual game matchups to account for correlation would be nice, but the two requests above should be straightforward with a minimum of work. From your copious spare time of course :)

#1 is now important even in the AL, where Cleveland could well be 95%+ to make the playoffs, but could well be <50% to have one of top 4 records. Will the Twins even finish above the White Sox? Above .500? At least I got to enjoy owning my 100-1 Twins futures for a couple months.

And of course the NL is so tight that this changes day-to-day. Incidentally, how important is a single win/loss now? Presumably this will depend somewhat on whether it was an "expected" win or loss. E.g. SF losing 2 of 3 to Braves (compared to perhaps 1.5 expected) was unpleasant for Giants fans, but not as devastating as the Twins losing 2 of 3 to Braves (where they should have expected to win perhaps 2.3 as a legitimate playoff team against the dregs of the AL).

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Messages In This Thread

Colin, any updates to Monte Carlo sim? -- James -- 20 Aug 01, 8:00 am
I got sidetracked onto college football -- Colin Caster -- 20 Aug 01, 3:17 pm

 


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