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Bonds - opportunity for bets

Posted By: duncan wallace
Date: 3 Oct 01, 3:16 pm

At one of the offshore books i bet at (and i'm sure probably others offer this same bet) you can bet on Total Bases - player vs. player. The players have to play in the same game. I found this bet and thought it was one with positie EV:

BARRY BONDS VS JEFF BAGWELL (MOST TOTAL BASES) (8:00 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points Money Line
3113 BARRY BONDS -0.5 -130 Wager
3114 JEFF BAGWELL +0.5 EVEN Wager

The reasons i think that this is pos EV:
1) Half of Bonds' plate appearances could be walks and walks do not count towards TB.
2) When Bonds does get pitched too he will not see good pitches.
3) The line is probably skewed towards Bonds.
4) Bagwell will get pitched to as usual.

They also offered Bonds vs Biggio and Bonds vs Berkman (w diff lines).

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