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Bases, parlaying totals to sides

Posted By: Fezzik
Date: 5 Aug 01, 12:16 am

We have discussed this before, but I wanted to get some feedback, and hopefully some data/conclusions from the board.

On average, games won by visitors have, I believe, average runs scored of around .5 more runs. This is because most of these games go 9.0 innings, but most games won by home teams last only 8.5 innings. Since a little over .5 runs are scored each 1/2 inning on average, you see why the visitor/over parlay (and the home team/under parlay) make intuitive sense.

Because of the above, recently whenever I am

1) About to bet a bases' total, and
2) Have no opinion on the side and
3) The side is a dimeline

I have been parlaying the total I want to bet to the applicable side, counting on the applicable correlation to more than overcome the house vig on the 2nd half of the bet (the side parlay). Since 51.3% gets me into the black betting into a dime line (on 2 equal teams), all I need is a little 1.3%+ "help" from the correlation to make an over parlay to the visitor a stronger bet than a straight over.

It's a little more unclear to me whether I should blindly parlay a side to the applicable total. For example, if I like the home team and will bet them, will I be better off with a hometeam to the under parlay in the longrun? Remember, the total is NOT a dimeline. I'm not thrilled about laying -110 on the 2nd part of the wager, but I would not be surprised if the data supported this method. Then again, I would not be surprised if the extra vigorish makes this the weaker play.

ps. Before Stevie jumps all over me for blindly parlaying without capping the other side to the bet, please assume you have done this, and you are absolutely indifferent to the other half of the bet offerred........you love the home team, for example, but feel the total posted is 100% correct. Do you bet the home team, the home team to the under, or a combo of both?

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Messages In This Thread

Bases, parlaying totals to sides -- Fezzik -- 5 Aug 01, 12:16 am
Some data -- Zoso -- 6 Aug 01, 11:38 am
Nice, thanks. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 6 Aug 01, 2:19 pm
A little more info -- Zoso -- 8 Aug 01, 9:17 am
Wouldn't the AL totals be skewed.... -- Allan -- 10 Aug 01, 11:32 pm

 


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