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SF vs STL in WC race

Posted By: docriver
Date: 10 Sep 01, 11:28 pm

I may have stated this before, but I think STL should be favored in the WC race, even though they are .5 game behind SF, but SF has a greater shot at making the playoffs (via WC or Division winner). The reason being that STL has 19 games left, and all but 6 of them (those 6 against HOU) are against MIL and PIT. Meanwhile, SF has 18 games left, and along with playing HOU 6 times, they also have to play a WC contender, LA, 6 times too. And the other 6 they have SD, which is a better team than either MIL or PIT.

My odds have the following :
NL East Champs
ATL : 84%
PHI : 16%

NL Central Champs
HOU : 81% (the reason why this may seem low is because all their games left are against SF, CHC and STL...no more softies).
STL : 13%
CHC : 6%

NL West Champs
ARI : 49%
SF : 35%
LA : 16%

Wild Card Champs
STL : 33.1%
SF : 18.3%
CHI : 14.6%
LA : 14.3%
ARI : 12.7%
HOU : 6.7%
ATL : 0.2%
PHI : 0.1%

Making a Playoff Appearance :
HOU : 88%
ATL : 84.2%
ARI : 61.4%
SF : 53.3%
STL : 46.3%
LA : 30.6%
CHI : 20.2%
PHI : 16.1%

at this point in the year, any one win or loss could mean as much as 5% in one's chances of getting into the playoffs. Especially in the PHI/ATL SF/HOU games in the next 3 days...so watch those games carefully...if ATL and HOU gain one more game on their opponent, it is very possible that is enough to make wagering on them to win their divisions profitable....and of course, the opposite may be true too. These books have been slow to move their lines in the division races (as Colin had previously stated).

Some may think I have ARI too low - at only 61.4% to make the playoffs, but frankly, I see little special about their team except for three stars (Schilling, Unit & Gonzo)...but the rest of the team is erratic (Kim) at best, and weak at worst (rest of offense and starters).

As for the playoffs, if ATL and ARI are in, and they are not playing each other, I'd like their opponents, be it HOU, or a WC team.

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Messages In This Thread

SF vs STL in WC race -- docriver -- 10 Sep 01, 11:28 pm
Question -- James -- 11 Sep 01, 11:19 am
yes, still .5 and .55 (nt) -- docriver -- 12 Sep 01, 5:54 pm

 


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