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Fair divisional odds - NL

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 3 Sep 01, 10:55 pm

Counting tonight's games (including the Bud Smith no-no), I get the following: 

East             Fair   Olympic

Atlanta          -726     -450 (+2.6% edge)

Philadelphia     +733     +325

New York       +99900    +2000



Central         

Houston          -533     -400 (+5.3% edge)

Chicago          +663     +300

St. Louis       +3604     +700



West

Arizona          -378     -220 (+15% edge!)

San Francisco    +706     +180

Los Angeles     +1076     +250

San Diego      +99900    +7500

As you can see, the division leaders are each undervalued at the moment. A 2 to 3 game lead by the strongest team in the division and only 24 or 25 games remaining is quite powerful. And with just one month remaining in the regular season, the prison sentence on your stake is not too bad.

Incidentally, the Yankees are 1-32 favorites at the moment. I believe they should be 1-132 favorites. This amounts only to a 2.3% edge. Still, given the current state of the stock market, Olympic isn't a bad place to put 3-6 dimes for a month.

The divisional races will likely become less interesting over the next couple of weeks (the three NL leaders have a 58% joint probability of winning their respective divisions), but the races tighten up, I will be following the odds closely on my NFL BoxSeats page. Also, the playoffs are right around the corner.

Colin

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Messages In This Thread

Fair divisional odds - NL -- Colin Caster -- 3 Sep 01, 10:55 pm
division leaders cheap everywhere -- docriver -- 3 Sep 01, 11:41 pm
I agree, I think. -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 6:39 pm
yes, i think so -- docriver -- 4 Sep 01, 6:44 pm
Bias, AKA handicapping -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 7:18 pm
true -- docriver -- 4 Sep 01, 8:04 pm
Even truer! -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 9:00 pm
yes! -- docriver -- 5 Sep 01, 5:40 am
5%/month investment -- James -- 4 Sep 01, 11:31 am
Twinkies -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 6:58 pm

 


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