General Forum

Handicapping the Handicappers

Posted By: RD
Date: 10 Sep 01, 4:41 pm

After one full week of both college and pro football, I have the following observations of the methodologies and thought processes of the 5 handicappers who are charging a fee on this board:

1. My observations are based on the following criteria, which I believe to be essential in winning at this game: a) how good is his "implied" power rating for the games. I call this "implied" since none of the handicappers has seen fit to actually provide subscribers with their actual handicapped power rating. b) how good is his discipline to avoid wagering at worse than the "settled" line, that is, the "market" line at around 5:30-6:00 pm eastern on Monday afternoon, when the major NY stores open for business. c) how good is his ability to predict line movement so as not to bet into a line that subsequently moves against them. I am not particularly concerned about the actual w/l record for the first week, since the sample size is too small. It is the thought process about the aforementioned criteria that matters.

2. "Implied" power rating involves how good a pure handicapper each appears to be. The best at this is StevieY, since he provides a worst line limit on each game. 2MinWarning also provides power rating type ideas, but they had the strange concept of going against their own numbers during the first week of the season. Colin Caster appears to do some line valuation handicapping, but no details are provided. Fezzik is, by his own admission, weak in this area. Stanford Wong thinks he might upset the betting marketplace by providing details on this methodology, so I would rank him last in this catagory.

3. Discipline to avoid wagering at worse than the settled line is shown best by Colin Caster and Fezzik. They are both aggressive in early week selections, trying to catch a line that they feel will move away from them. StevieY is a little weaker here, since he plays later in the week, but makes up for this somewhat by usually playing into lines that have moved away from the settled line in his favor. 2MinWarning does not consider this aspect of winning, nor does Stanford Wong.

4. Ability to predict line movement so as not to have the line move against you is shown best by Fezzik, as this is his major edge. Colin Caster and StevieY are not far behind, although this is more an implicit factor with StevieY since he posts his selections all at once. 2MinWarning does not try to do this, nor does Stanford Wong.

5. Bottom line, winning at sports betting requires both an ability to handicap the game and the wagering public. Colin Caster, Fezzik, and StevieY show different strengths on these criteria, but at least all do consider both. 2MinuteWarning is severely lacking in an attempt to handicap the wagering public. Finally, Stanford Wong seems to approach sports betting like it is a blackjack game instead of a poker game. He gives no thought as to how others might be betting the game. He acknowledges "shopping" in trying to establish a track record, but provides no guidance on how he thinks a subscriber might bet his picks, or even how he came up with his picks.

Messages In This Thread

Handicapping the Handicappers -- RD -- 10 Sep 01, 4:41 pm

capping the cappers -- lepto -- 10 Sep 01, 5:02 pm

Fine post-Keep the "experts" honest! (nt) -- f.sarlo -- 10 Sep 01, 7:17 pm

Additional comments re: Handicapping the Handicappers. -- samo666 -- 11 Sep 01, 4:49 am

Thanks. I was wondering -- lepto -- 11 Sep 01, 5:44 am

Being a settled line bettor vs. being a line settler - ??? re: RD's method. -- samo666 -- 11 Sep 01, 10:19 pm

Volume -- RD -- 12 Sep 01, 8:21 am

agree strongly -- bigplayer -- 12 Sep 01, 4:28 pm

Page owners power ratings. -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 3:40 pm

Power ratings -- StevieY -- 30 Sep 01, 11:24 am

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