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Section 3 - Handling the Dregs of CFB

Posted By: Ben
Date: 20 Jul 03, 4:28 am

In Response To: Colin, can we discuss your 2002 handicapping? (nt) (Ben)

Have you considered a short term consectutive week failure rate (your bets) of 0-2 ATS giving the team two opportunities to win or burn you before dumping them and "waiting" for the team to "show" with an ATS win before firing again? This way you can be hardheaded but not bullheaded.

What about considering consecutive SU losses of 28 or greater or a single horrendous loss of > 50 SU?

These bad SU margins are telling you something. DO NOT BET THIS TEAM UNTIL THEY GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER.

Use BOTH methods.

Using this with the three teams mentioned.

KANSAS
DNP LOSS ISU ATS MARGIN -21, SU Margin -42
WIN UNLV - You could still play these guys
-
-
The three games before Kansas State, the Mousehawks (I used to call KU the Gayhawks but that is not pc in this age) lose by SU margins of 24, 25, 24, and ATS of -3, -2, -3. Anyway there is no avoiding the freight train given the subset above.

LOSE 11/2 KU +33 K State ATS MARGIN -31, SU Margin -64
--
These are games you would have missed
LOSE 11/9 KU +37 NEB, ATS -2, SU -38
LOSE 11/16 KU +23 OSU ATS -7, SU -35

Your old record: 1-3 ATS, adjusted record 1-1 ATS, Gain +2.2 Games

"And on the field runs the Baylor Caster's!!! Yes folks they are the Bears no more!!!"

BAYLOR
- No avoiding this given SU/ATS or betting sequence
LOSE 10/12 Baylor +20 TAM, ATS -21, SU -40
no bet 10/19 CU +28, ATS -6, -34

you can't bet em! you can't bet em! Look at those SU margins! They are not covering the spread. They have shown you nothing but weak efforts. But onto the field runs the Baylor Caster's!

LOSE 10/26 Baylor +29 KSU ATS -3, SU -34

you can't bet em! you can't bet em!
NEXT WEEK, Whew! No bet.
no bet 11/2 Baylor +32 TT ATS -19, SU -51

you can't bet em! you can't bet em! Oh no!
LOSE 11/9 BAYLOR +40 TEX ATS -1, SU -41
LOSE 11/16 BAYLOR +38 OU ATS -2, SU -40
LOSE 11/23 BAYLOR +28 OSU ATS -7, SU -35

Instead of going 0-5 ATS the potential is there to gain +4.4 games and bet just one loser. Given that Baylor suddenly shows a competitive SU effort or covers the number then you can fire away. You had neither. Use PF-PA!

UTEP
- Can't avoid this one.
LOSE 9/7 UTEP +19 UK, ATS -41, SU -60

You miss this one
LOSE 9/14 UTEP +43 OU ATS -25, SU -68

and this one
LOSE 9/21 UTEP +19 Hawaii ATS -6, SU -25

but hey you CAN play on these guys again. The effort was respectable versus Hawaii in a SU Margin kind of way.

Well, after losing by SU Margins of -34 & -35 you can't play these guys. But...

You win one!

10/19 UTEP +13.5 Rice SU by 3!

Okay +1 to you and - 1 to me for those of you keeping score at home.

On the UTEP wagon goes...

Colin
no bet UTEP +27 Nevada ATS+ 21, -6 SU we can play and you do
LOSE UTEP +5.5 SMU ATS -1.5, SU -7 we can play and you do
WIN UTEP +5.5 La Tech

Your UTEP Record: 2-4 ATS, Mine 1-2 ATS I miss a winner and two losers.

OVERALL GAIN: +8.6 games.

Colin, this is part of my handicapping method. Why would you not consider this?

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Messages In This Thread

Colin, can we discuss your 2002 handicapping? (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 5:01 pm
Sure. Here are some things to start with: (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:16 pm
Picks and wrapup from CFB 2002 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:21 pm
Picks and wrapup from CFB 2001 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:26 pm
I had everything except 2001 until now. -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:57 pm
Sorry for the redundancy. I took the opportunity... -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:13 pm
Introduction to me and my methods -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:30 pm
This was very helpful! (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 7:05 pm
Sample picks post -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:49 pm
Overall Colin Caster monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm
Minor corrections to monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:01 pm
Thanks! We have alot to cover. Section #1 -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm
Good questions -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:36 pm
Nugget -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:01 am
Yes, you chose a good post -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:31 am
I leave no stone unturned -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:18 am
Sometimes the enemy is looking at you in the mirror -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 5:52 am
Exactly -- good stuff, Ben. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:32 am
sorry colin -- garr -- 19 Jul 03, 5:08 pm
LOL -- I wondered if you were going to weigh in! -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 5:13 pm
how 'bout UTEP? -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 19 Jul 03, 5:39 pm
You're an evil man. -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:12 pm
yeah -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 20 Jul 03, 4:23 pm
ISU? Groannnnnn -- daringly -- 21 Jul 03, 9:04 am
FYI 28+ Dogs 2001 -- Ben -- 22 Jul 03, 4:09 am
Are you looking at a particular subset? -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 2:28 pm
Just your subset, not overall, comprende? (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 2:58 pm
Comprendo. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 3:13 pm
Very Early Season Handicapping -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:17 am
Yes, I do code for returning starters -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:43 am
statistical analysis software -- Snow -- 19 Jul 03, 5:19 am
I do my own stats -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:53 am
Understand the Sport/Oddsmaking -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:35 am
Section 2 - Home/Away Performance -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:38 am
Another controversial topic -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 11:05 am
snow = stanford, Ben = Yosh or CC or WillyH (nt) -- papa joe -- 19 Jul 03, 12:12 pm
this from papa joe/Billy Ford/The Obvious Guy/MT Handed/etc. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 12:24 pm
snow=CC Yosh=WillyHoppy (nt) -- papa joe -- 30 Jul 03, 5:36 am
papa joe = Oliver Stone (nt) -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 1:25 pm
Section 3 - Handling the Dregs of CFB -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 4:28 am
Ben -- Colin Caster -- 20 Jul 03, 2:09 pm
Just wait until you have plenty of time to respond in detail (nt) -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 5:43 pm
Continuing this thread -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 4:13 pm
I knew your answer from reading other posts -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 6:07 pm
Cheers. -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 6:50 pm
Well -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 7:16 pm
scratching -- Colin Caster -- 29 Jul 03, 7:29 pm
Helps alot. Thx! (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 30 Jul 03, 5:18 am
Nice To Talk Football!!!!! (nt) -- Paul Feeney -- 30 Jul 03, 11:54 am
Hey, Paul! (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 30 Jul 03, 2:39 pm

 


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