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Sometimes the enemy is looking at you in the mirror

Posted By: Ben
Date: 19 Jul 03, 5:52 am

In Response To: Good questions (Colin Caster)

The tendency to ascribe long-term trend status to one's most recent memories is known to psychologists as the "availability heuristic." The phenomenon is deftly described in a Web page devoted to forms of cognitive thinking in the online courses of Fairmont (W. Va.) State College provost and psychology professor Frederick G. Fidura. The concept offers a good explanation for why we are often fooled by our faulty memories of market behavior. "Because memory for items generally declines with time, more recent items are recalled more accurately," Fidura notes. "Since recent items are more available, we judge them to more likely than they really are."...

Availability Heuristic is observation of an unusual event and overestimating likelihood of occurrence. Confirmation bias is seeking out information we need and ignoring other data.

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Messages In This Thread

Colin, can we discuss your 2002 handicapping? (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 5:01 pm
Sure. Here are some things to start with: (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:16 pm
Picks and wrapup from CFB 2002 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:21 pm
Picks and wrapup from CFB 2001 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:26 pm
I had everything except 2001 until now. -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:57 pm
Sorry for the redundancy. I took the opportunity... -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:13 pm
Introduction to me and my methods -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:30 pm
This was very helpful! (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 7:05 pm
Sample picks post -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:49 pm
Overall Colin Caster monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm
Minor corrections to monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:01 pm
Thanks! We have alot to cover. Section #1 -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm
Good questions -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:36 pm
Nugget -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:01 am
Yes, you chose a good post -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:31 am
I leave no stone unturned -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:18 am
Sometimes the enemy is looking at you in the mirror -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 5:52 am
Exactly -- good stuff, Ben. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:32 am
sorry colin -- garr -- 19 Jul 03, 5:08 pm
LOL -- I wondered if you were going to weigh in! -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 5:13 pm
how 'bout UTEP? -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 19 Jul 03, 5:39 pm
You're an evil man. -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:12 pm
yeah -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 20 Jul 03, 4:23 pm
ISU? Groannnnnn -- daringly -- 21 Jul 03, 9:04 am
FYI 28+ Dogs 2001 -- Ben -- 22 Jul 03, 4:09 am
Are you looking at a particular subset? -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 2:28 pm
Just your subset, not overall, comprende? (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 2:58 pm
Comprendo. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 3:13 pm
Very Early Season Handicapping -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:17 am
Yes, I do code for returning starters -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:43 am
statistical analysis software -- Snow -- 19 Jul 03, 5:19 am
I do my own stats -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:53 am
Understand the Sport/Oddsmaking -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:35 am
Section 2 - Home/Away Performance -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:38 am
Another controversial topic -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 11:05 am
snow = stanford, Ben = Yosh or CC or WillyH (nt) -- papa joe -- 19 Jul 03, 12:12 pm
this from papa joe/Billy Ford/The Obvious Guy/MT Handed/etc. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 12:24 pm
snow=CC Yosh=WillyHoppy (nt) -- papa joe -- 30 Jul 03, 5:36 am
papa joe = Oliver Stone (nt) -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 1:25 pm
Section 3 - Handling the Dregs of CFB -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 4:28 am
Ben -- Colin Caster -- 20 Jul 03, 2:09 pm
Just wait until you have plenty of time to respond in detail (nt) -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 5:43 pm
Continuing this thread -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 4:13 pm
I knew your answer from reading other posts -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 6:07 pm
Cheers. -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 6:50 pm
Well -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 7:16 pm
scratching -- Colin Caster -- 29 Jul 03, 7:29 pm
Helps alot. Thx! (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 30 Jul 03, 5:18 am
Nice To Talk Football!!!!! (nt) -- Paul Feeney -- 30 Jul 03, 11:54 am
Hey, Paul! (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 30 Jul 03, 2:39 pm

 


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