CFB Forum

Nugget

Posted By: Ben
Date: 19 Jul 03, 4:01 am

In Response To: Good questions (Colin Caster)

<< Regarding emotional factors, you'll need to sort me into the skeptic category. >>

<< Players who consider my picks should be aware of these tendencies (like big dogs, especially early; tend to discount emotional factors). That way, if they consider these tendencies ill-advised, they can pass selectively. >>

I agree. But knowing this helps me understand why you do things which is huge. If I know the majority of the time emotion carried little weight or not enough weight to disregard the play I can do mental gymnastics much easier when I put myself in "your" shoes.

Here is a nugget:

Colin on “Trends” vs. “Scoring Margin” Oregon -10 Miss State

What *I'm* impressed by are variables that are reliable (which usually means well aggregated) and that have been shown to predict future performance. For example, season long PF-PA is predictive across seasons, especially when SOS is controlled. And as you point out, State was just awful last season. In fact they only scored 196 points against 288 allowed. Just terrible! Now, I think it's fair to point out in their defense, as you did, their tough schedule. But it wasn't *that* tough. In fact, their mean point spread was just about PK. They failed to cover the spread by an amazing aggregate of 101 points last year.

It is, as you say, absolutely remarkable that they managed a 6-5 ATS record given how badly they were outplayed, but to me, what this disconnect suggests is that their ATS record was a substantial *overestimate* of their true ability, NOT that their PF-PA was an *underestimate* of their ability. It all comes down to the variables in which one places his trust, of course. Which team is better -- the one that goes 2-0 ATS hooking the spread each time, or the one that gets hooked in one game ATS and then blows out its other opponent? As an index of team quality I choose the PF-PA over the ATS record.

Last season Oregon came into the season with big expectations, and still managed to beat the spread by an aggregate of 67.5 points. They were *way better* than even the high expectations we set for them via the line.

Now, of course, we can expect both teams to regress towards the mean this year, and then we factor in personnel changes. When I do that, I get Oregon as a sizeable favorite on a neutral field, and even more at home.

Messages In This Thread

Colin, can we discuss your 2002 handicapping? (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 5:01 pm

Sure. Here are some things to start with: (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:16 pm

Picks and wrapup from CFB 2002 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:21 pm

Picks and wrapup from CFB 2001 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:26 pm

I had everything except 2001 until now. -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:57 pm

Sorry for the redundancy. I took the opportunity... -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:13 pm

Introduction to me and my methods -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:30 pm

This was very helpful! (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 7:05 pm

Sample picks post -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:49 pm

Overall Colin Caster monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm

Minor corrections to monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:01 pm

Thanks! We have alot to cover. Section #1 -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm

Good questions -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:36 pm

Nugget -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:01 am

Yes, you chose a good post -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:31 am

I leave no stone unturned -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:18 am

Sometimes the enemy is looking at you in the mirror -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 5:52 am

Exactly -- good stuff, Ben. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:32 am

sorry colin -- garr -- 19 Jul 03, 5:08 pm

LOL -- I wondered if you were going to weigh in! -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 5:13 pm

how 'bout UTEP? -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 19 Jul 03, 5:39 pm

You're an evil man. -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:12 pm

yeah -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 20 Jul 03, 4:23 pm

ISU? Groannnnnn -- daringly -- 21 Jul 03, 9:04 am

FYI 28+ Dogs 2001 -- Ben -- 22 Jul 03, 4:09 am

Are you looking at a particular subset? -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 2:28 pm

Just your subset, not overall, comprende? (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 2:58 pm

Comprendo. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 3:13 pm

Very Early Season Handicapping -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:17 am

Yes, I do code for returning starters -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:43 am

statistical analysis software -- Snow -- 19 Jul 03, 5:19 am

I do my own stats -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:53 am

Understand the Sport/Oddsmaking -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:35 am

Section 2 - Home/Away Performance -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:38 am

Another controversial topic -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 11:05 am

snow = stanford, Ben = Yosh or CC or WillyH (nt) -- papa joe -- 19 Jul 03, 12:12 pm

this from papa joe/Billy Ford/The Obvious Guy/MT Handed/etc. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 12:24 pm

snow=CC Yosh=WillyHoppy (nt) -- papa joe -- 30 Jul 03, 5:36 am

papa joe = Oliver Stone (nt) -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 1:25 pm

Section 3 - Handling the Dregs of CFB -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 4:28 am

Ben -- Colin Caster -- 20 Jul 03, 2:09 pm

Just wait until you have plenty of time to respond in detail (nt) -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 5:43 pm

Continuing this thread -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 4:13 pm

I knew your answer from reading other posts -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 6:07 pm

Cheers. -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 6:50 pm

Well -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 7:16 pm

scratching -- Colin Caster -- 29 Jul 03, 7:29 pm

Helps alot. Thx! (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 30 Jul 03, 5:18 am

Nice To Talk Football!!!!! (nt) -- Paul Feeney -- 30 Jul 03, 11:54 am

Hey, Paul! (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 30 Jul 03, 2:39 pm

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