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Good questions

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 18 Jul 03, 7:36 pm

In Response To: Thanks! We have alot to cover. Section #1 (Ben)

First, let me apologize if this is my last post tonight. I'm on Eastern time and I've made more posts today than I should have. Here's my best shot while my eyes are still open:

1. Totals, Rocked. But the interesting thing was you come out of the gate gunning and just weeks later few totals. What was up with your logic here? It seems like you would have continued to make total plays. What was your logic with so many totals out of the gate?

Thanks for the breakdown -- that was really helpful. I think what happened is that my numbers converged rapidly with those of LVSC, so after just a couple of weeks we were using the same data and coming to the same conclusions more often.

2. Why the affinity for +28+ Dogs? Your logic requested? What are you looking for in a typical play. PF-PA? etc... Did you notice your record with these plays dropped way off midway through the season? Any reasons why they failed?

When I pick a big dog, it's because I am skeptical that one or the other (rarely both) of the teams is as extreme as they are being credited with. Early in the season I love the big dogs, as there's still so much uncertainty about relative team strength. I was able to back up my love for big dogs with historical data at some point last season, but it might require a little excavation in the archives. Anyway, as you saw, they diminished in frequency throughout the season.

3. Now tell me why you would play Baylor down the strech? What was your logic? They lose by 41, 34, 34, 52, 41, 40, and 35 to close the season, 1-14 ATS their last 15 games.

4. Ditto Kansas? Versus K State do you not realize this is a circled game where he KNOWS the number and goes for it year after year so he can dominate the state? Additionally Synder was so pissed that he #1 staff member left for Oklahoma he would not talk to Mangino thereafter. Kansas 24, 25, 24, 64, 38, and 35 as you took this team against Oklahoma State. Your logic requested.

As you might imagine, I took a lot of heat for my Big 12 doggies last season. Handicappers are supposed to know that nothing pisses off a follower more than getting burned with the same team more than once. But I'm very stubborn. If I think a team is being appraised improperly, a single game result is rarely enough to take me off them. Even two game results might not be enough. And Baylor beat me each time.

Regarding emotional factors, you'll need to sort me into the skeptic category. I believe a lot of trends/revenge/emotional factors are generated post hoc, and therefore have little predictive utility. Of those that are a priori, the winning angles get remembered and the losers are conveniently forgotten. That isn't to say that I'm a total nonbeliever in emotional factors, but I think players are much more likely to overrate their strength than to underrate it. If there's a well-known angle, I'm one of those first in line to fade it.

Players who consider my picks should be aware of these tendencies (like big dogs, especially early; tend to discount emotional factors). That way, if they consider these tendencies ill-advised, they can pass selectively.

You ask good questions.

CC

Messages In This Thread

Colin, can we discuss your 2002 handicapping? (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 5:01 pm

Sure. Here are some things to start with: (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:16 pm

Picks and wrapup from CFB 2002 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:21 pm

Picks and wrapup from CFB 2001 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:26 pm

I had everything except 2001 until now. -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:57 pm

Sorry for the redundancy. I took the opportunity... -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:13 pm

Introduction to me and my methods -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:30 pm

This was very helpful! (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 7:05 pm

Sample picks post -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:49 pm

Overall Colin Caster monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm

Minor corrections to monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:01 pm

Thanks! We have alot to cover. Section #1 -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm

Good questions -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:36 pm

Nugget -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:01 am

Yes, you chose a good post -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:31 am

I leave no stone unturned -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:18 am

Sometimes the enemy is looking at you in the mirror -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 5:52 am

Exactly -- good stuff, Ben. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:32 am

sorry colin -- garr -- 19 Jul 03, 5:08 pm

LOL -- I wondered if you were going to weigh in! -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 5:13 pm

how 'bout UTEP? -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 19 Jul 03, 5:39 pm

You're an evil man. -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:12 pm

yeah -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 20 Jul 03, 4:23 pm

ISU? Groannnnnn -- daringly -- 21 Jul 03, 9:04 am

FYI 28+ Dogs 2001 -- Ben -- 22 Jul 03, 4:09 am

Are you looking at a particular subset? -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 2:28 pm

Just your subset, not overall, comprende? (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 2:58 pm

Comprendo. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 3:13 pm

Very Early Season Handicapping -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:17 am

Yes, I do code for returning starters -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:43 am

statistical analysis software -- Snow -- 19 Jul 03, 5:19 am

I do my own stats -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:53 am

Understand the Sport/Oddsmaking -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:35 am

Section 2 - Home/Away Performance -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:38 am

Another controversial topic -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 11:05 am

snow = stanford, Ben = Yosh or CC or WillyH (nt) -- papa joe -- 19 Jul 03, 12:12 pm

this from papa joe/Billy Ford/The Obvious Guy/MT Handed/etc. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 12:24 pm

snow=CC Yosh=WillyHoppy (nt) -- papa joe -- 30 Jul 03, 5:36 am

papa joe = Oliver Stone (nt) -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 1:25 pm

Section 3 - Handling the Dregs of CFB -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 4:28 am

Ben -- Colin Caster -- 20 Jul 03, 2:09 pm

Just wait until you have plenty of time to respond in detail (nt) -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 5:43 pm

Continuing this thread -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 4:13 pm

I knew your answer from reading other posts -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 6:07 pm

Cheers. -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 6:50 pm

Well -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 7:16 pm

scratching -- Colin Caster -- 29 Jul 03, 7:29 pm

Helps alot. Thx! (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 30 Jul 03, 5:18 am

Nice To Talk Football!!!!! (nt) -- Paul Feeney -- 30 Jul 03, 11:54 am

Hey, Paul! (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 30 Jul 03, 2:39 pm

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