CFB Forum

Sample picks post

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 18 Jul 03, 6:49 pm

In Response To: Sure. Here are some things to start with: (nt) (Colin Caster)

This is a pretty fair representation of what I post with my picks. As I may have explained in the previous post, my picks largely derive from quantitative models (i.e., I'm not much of an "angle" guy), so I consider the writeups "color" rather than specifically explanatory.

Again, the link may not work for you, so here's the text:

Colin Caster College Football Forum
Very early picks
Posted By: Colin Caster <colincaster@nethawk.com> on 9 December 01, 5:57 p.m. in response to: Bowl picks (YTD: 106-83-8, +19.1/258.65 units, +7% ROI) (Colin Caster)

#134 Marshall +1.5 over East Carolina (12/19)
#172 Stanford -2.5 over Georgia Tech (12/27)

There aren't too many lines out just yet, but there are just enough to make these early plays. Stanford, which is 2.5 - 3 at the moment may well be 3 everywhere before long. If you can't find it, try cascadesportsbook.com. Same for Marshall +1.5, which is 1 at some places and PK at others.

Although Marshall and EC have similar records ATS, Marshall really had no trouble at all with most of their schedule. They had two losses to bowl teams (including one BCS team); their other three failures to cover came as 20something point favorites -- they won each of these games by 20 something points. Meanwhile, EC struggled all season long. Their five losses include two non-bowl teams (Southern Miss and Wake Forest), plus they just squeaked past both Cincinnati and TCU (by 2 and 7 points, respectively, and needed to count a two touchdown win over William & Mary to become bowl eligible.

Stanford (9-2; 7-4 ATS) deserves better than Georgia Tech (7-5; 3-8 ATS). Four of the wins that make Georgia Tech bowl eligible came against Wake Forest, Duke, Navy, and the Citadel. While Tech was an aggregate 24.5 points *worse* than their spreads this season (and this includes a 70-7 victory over winless Navy), Stanford finished an aggregate 41.5 points *better* than its spreads. The 2.5s that are floating out there early make this pick even more desirable.

CC

CC

Sample picks post (from 2001)

Messages In This Thread

Colin, can we discuss your 2002 handicapping? (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 5:01 pm

Sure. Here are some things to start with: (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:16 pm

Picks and wrapup from CFB 2002 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:21 pm

Picks and wrapup from CFB 2001 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:26 pm

I had everything except 2001 until now. -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:57 pm

Sorry for the redundancy. I took the opportunity... -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:13 pm

Introduction to me and my methods -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:30 pm

This was very helpful! (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 7:05 pm

Sample picks post -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:49 pm

Overall Colin Caster monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm

Minor corrections to monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:01 pm

Thanks! We have alot to cover. Section #1 -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm

Good questions -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:36 pm

Nugget -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:01 am

Yes, you chose a good post -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:31 am

I leave no stone unturned -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:18 am

Sometimes the enemy is looking at you in the mirror -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 5:52 am

Exactly -- good stuff, Ben. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:32 am

sorry colin -- garr -- 19 Jul 03, 5:08 pm

LOL -- I wondered if you were going to weigh in! -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 5:13 pm

how 'bout UTEP? -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 19 Jul 03, 5:39 pm

You're an evil man. -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:12 pm

yeah -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 20 Jul 03, 4:23 pm

ISU? Groannnnnn -- daringly -- 21 Jul 03, 9:04 am

FYI 28+ Dogs 2001 -- Ben -- 22 Jul 03, 4:09 am

Are you looking at a particular subset? -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 2:28 pm

Just your subset, not overall, comprende? (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 2:58 pm

Comprendo. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 3:13 pm

Very Early Season Handicapping -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:17 am

Yes, I do code for returning starters -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:43 am

statistical analysis software -- Snow -- 19 Jul 03, 5:19 am

I do my own stats -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:53 am

Understand the Sport/Oddsmaking -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:35 am

Section 2 - Home/Away Performance -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:38 am

Another controversial topic -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 11:05 am

snow = stanford, Ben = Yosh or CC or WillyH (nt) -- papa joe -- 19 Jul 03, 12:12 pm

this from papa joe/Billy Ford/The Obvious Guy/MT Handed/etc. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 12:24 pm

snow=CC Yosh=WillyHoppy (nt) -- papa joe -- 30 Jul 03, 5:36 am

papa joe = Oliver Stone (nt) -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 1:25 pm

Section 3 - Handling the Dregs of CFB -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 4:28 am

Ben -- Colin Caster -- 20 Jul 03, 2:09 pm

Just wait until you have plenty of time to respond in detail (nt) -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 5:43 pm

Continuing this thread -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 4:13 pm

I knew your answer from reading other posts -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 6:07 pm

Cheers. -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 6:50 pm

Well -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 7:16 pm

scratching -- Colin Caster -- 29 Jul 03, 7:29 pm

Helps alot. Thx! (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 30 Jul 03, 5:18 am

Nice To Talk Football!!!!! (nt) -- Paul Feeney -- 30 Jul 03, 11:54 am

Hey, Paul! (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 30 Jul 03, 2:39 pm

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