CFB Forum

Introduction to me and my methods

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 18 Jul 03, 6:30 pm

In Response To: Sure. Here are some things to start with: (nt) (Colin Caster)

Again, I don't think the link below will function, so here's my introductory post when I began as an SSB host:

Colin Caster College Football Forum
Who is Colin Caster and where's the football??
Posted By: Colin Caster <colincaster@nethawk.com> on 16 August 01, 2:52 a.m.

In Stanford Wong's new "Sharp Sports Betting," he identifies three ways to get an edge in sports betting: a) breaking news; b) superior use of existing data; and c) motivation. My efforts, talents, and interests are subsumed primarily within the second of these categories.

I am not a full-time gambler or sports analyst. I am a tenured professor at a Division I University whose research and teaching interests center on problems of prediction. I like my day job, and I work hard at it. I'm telling you this to explain: 1) that although I like sports very much, I know no more about the ins and outs of sports than the above average sports fan; 2) that beyond a certain point, I have neither the time nor inclination to become a bigger sports fan; 3) that my chief interest and expertise is in the area of prediction and quantitative information processing. You will probably not see me engaging in a lot of discussion about the relative merits of pass defenses; you will definitely not see me running down the Bills' depth chart. Instead, I am interested in questions such as: is 10-1 a good futures price? how many games will the Bruins win this season? what are the odds that the Mariners will win the Series in four games? I believe that careful quantitative analysis with conservative assumptions can be used to identify advanatgeous wagers.

I use various types of mathematical modeling to predict game outcomes in four sports: college basketball and football, major league baseball, and pro football. Like many handicappers, I began with the latter. I have been making formal predictions against NFL spreads and totals in small-circulation newsletters, and more recently, on the Internet, for a decade now. Since I began in 1991, aided at first only by my little Mac+, my aggregated NFL record (sides and totals) is 358-304 (54.1%). My models have become more complex and better refined every season, but last year my NFL record was only 51-51, and that was thanks to a 6-1 run in the playoffs.

Last year, when I served as the handicapper for wagering.com (don't go there now -- it's a ghost town), I received the financial compensation I needed to invest the time to branch out into other sports. I was 11-8 (57.9%) in my first season predicting college football, 116-97 (54.5%) in my first season predicting college hoops, and I had a ridiculously impressive first season in major league baseball. My sophomore baseball season has not been so good. You can follow my baseball picks on my "BoxSeats:NFL" page; I am currently down 15.98 units out of 305.13 units bet (the equivalent of a 137-140 football record).

The best aggregated summary of my sports handicapping career is therefore a 701-599 record (53.9%), up 42.1 wagering units, returning +2.9% return on investment. Do I believe I can handicap much better than this? Not really. 54-55% against the spread is about as good as I believe I can expect using my quantitative models and assuming standard sportsbook vigorish. I do believe that one can realize substantially better return on investment by refusing to pay standard sportsbook vigorish, via: aggressive line shopping, taking full advantage of promotions, and researching exotic bets. The sharpsportsbetting.com website is filled with such ideas for increasing return on investment.

I welcome you to my hosted pages, where I will exclusively post my picks in MLB, and college and pro football. I have been busily preparing for the football season (while handicapping the very active MLB season), and expect to have my first football picks (futures) later this week. Thanks for participating.

Best wishes,

Colin