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CFB Forum
Picks and wrapup from CFB 2001
Posted By: Colin Caster In Response To: Sure. Here are some things to start with: (nt) (Colin Caster)
Date: 18 Jul 03, 6:26 pm
Again, this includes my season wrap-up (there is a typo in the results, later corrected). Because this appeared in the BoxSeats, you may not be able to access it via the link below, so here is the text -- sorry about the formatting.
CC
Colin Caster College Football Forum
Colin Caster's 2001 CFB picks wrap-up
Posted By: Colin Caster <colincaster@nethawk.com> on 3 January 02, 1:16 a.m.
After a promising start to the bowl season, I finished with a whimper, losing my final four bowl picks. Though my bowl results were 3-5 ATS, I did manage to get the better of the spread, beating the opening line by an aggregate of 2.5 points, and outguessing the closing line by a total of 4 points (I was fooled only by the late movement on East Carolina over Marshall, and I benefitted most from the Grossman benching).
For the entire season, I hit at 55.3%, gaining 16.6 units out of 267.45 units wagered on posted picks. I was 18-17 on totals, 72-56 on sides, and 12-7 on futures. I was 3-4 on OVERs; 15-13 on UNDERs; 36-33 on favorites; and 36-23 on dogs.
Weighting my picks helped me gain an additional 1.15 units I wouldn't have achieved otherwise. This benefit was due to the strength of my futures picks, most of which were double weighted. In all, 38 of my 205 picks were double weighted; the rest were single unit wagers.
My posted picks were all against "widely available" lines, which I defined as lines that were available at 20% or more of the major offshore books. I do not recall any complaints that my lines were inaccessible; frequently, subscribers were able to do better than my posted lines. I provided e-mail service to subscribers who were concerned about beating line moves.
My line timing this season was quite good. Of the 147 games in which the line I posted differed from the Don Best "opening" line, my line was better 71% of the time. I consider this stat to reflect "discipline" because it can be attributed to waiting patiently for a favorable line to become widely available, and to refusing to play lines that degraded. Across all my picks, my line was therefore an average of 0.8 points better than the opener.
Of the 136 games in which the widely available line I posted differed from the widely available line at kickoff, my line was better 63% of the time. I consider this stat to reflect reasonably good accuracy in prediction of line movement. Across all picks, my line was an average of 0.3 points better than the widely available closing number.
My season summary statistics are followed below by a listing of all my picks (I link to a summary of my futures picks, which I wrapped up earlier).
Best wishes,
Colin Caster
Overall record: 109-88-8, +19.1 units, 258.65 wagered, +7% return
Win totals: 12-7-5, +9.45 units, 50.8 wagered, +19% return
Record ATS: 97-81-3, 54.5%, +7.15 units, 216.65 wagered, +3% return
Record ATS against opening line: 97-82-2
Record ATS against closing line: 94-80-7
Single weight sides: 72-56-3
Double weight sides: 7-8
Single weight totals: 17-17
Double weight totals: 1-0
Better line than opener: 105-42-34, +140.5 points, +0.8 per game
Better line than closing: 86-50-45, +54.5 points, +0.3 per game
Date Rot# Pick Line Opponent Open Clos ATS
08/23 #107 New Mex St. U63.5 Louisville 0.0 +3.0 L
08/25 #131 TCU +30.5 Nebraska +4.0 +0.5 W
08/25 #134 Wisconsin -9.0 Virginia 0.0 +1.0 P
08/25 #135 Tulane U59.0 BYU -0.5 -1.0 L
08/25 #136 BYU -9.0 Tulane +3.0 +1.5 W
08/30 #317 South Florida +21.5 Northern Illinois 0.0 +3.5 W
08/30 #320 Arkansas -5.0* UNLV -1.5 0.0 L
09/01 #375 Marshall +30.0* Florida +2.0 -4.0 L
09/01 #377 San Jose St. U62.5 USC +2.5 0.0 W
09/01 #384 Southern Miss -9.5 Oklahoma State +2.5 +1.0 L
09/01 #385 New Mex. St. +35.5 Texas +0.5 0.0 W
09/01 #389 Troy State +53.0* Nebraska 0.0 +4.0 W
09/01 #393 Wisconsin +11.0 Oregon +2.5 0.0 W
09/01 #409 Nevada +28.0 BYU -1.0 +0.5 L
09/06 #101 Indiana U65.5 NC State +3.5 +2.5 W
09/06 #102 NC State -6.5 Indiana -1.0 +0.5 W
09/06 #104 Wyoming +16.0 Texas A&M -1.0 0.0 W
09/07 #105 Northwestern U57.0 UNLV +1.0 0.0 L
09/08 #110 Virginia Tech –15.0 Western Michigan +1.5 0.0 W
09/08 #111 Rutgers +44.5 Miami +3.5 0.0 L
09/08 #116 Navy +25.5 Georgia Tech -2.5 0.0 L
09/08 #134 West Virginia -4.0 Ohio +5.5 +1.5 W
09/08 #139 Michigan O46.5 Washington +2.5 +2.0 L
09/08 #143 Mississippi U46.0 Auburn +0.5 -1.0 L
09/08 #153 Nevada +30.0 Colorado State +3.0 -0.5 W
09/08 #160 UL Monroe +57.5 Florida +1.0 +1.0 W
09/08 #172 North Texas +41.0 Oklahoma -1.0 -0.5 W
09/08 #174 Georgia +2.0* South Carolina +5.0 0.0 L
09/08 #190 Arkansas +13.5 Tennessee -0.5 +0.5 W
09/20 #101 So Carolina O38.0 Mississippi State +3.0 +2.0 L
09/20 #219 Rice +34.0 Nebraska -1.0 +0.5 L
09/22 #115 Arkansas +10.0 Alabama +2.5 0.0 L
09/22 #120 Connecticut -6.0 Buffalo +1.5 +1.0 L
09/22 #122 Cent Michigan +24.5 Toledo -2.0 +0.5 W
09/22 #128 Kentucky +32.0* Florida +5.0 0.0 L
09/22 #135 Fresno State U52.0 Tulsa -1.0 +3.0 L
09/22 #145 Kansas +25.0 Colorado +2.0 -2.0 W
09/22 #160 Wake Forest +6.0 Maryland -0.5 +1.0 L
09/22 #166 UL Monroe +21.0 Middle TN St. –0.5 -2.0 W
09/22 #171 South Florida O38.5 Memphis +2.5 +0.5 L
09/22 #180 Houston +31.5* Texas +3.0 +1.0 W
09/22 #187 UNLV O44.0 Arizona +1.0 -0.5 W
09/22 #188 Arizona -2.0* UNLV +2.0 +0.5 W
09/22 #225 Hawaii U58.0 Nevada +1.0 -4.5 W
09/22 #226 Nevada +5.5 Hawaii -1.5 0.0 W
09/29 #303 Notre Dame O37.0 Texas A&M +1.0 +2.5 L
09/29 #310 Virginia -18.0 Duke +2.0 -2.5 W
09/29 #311 Clemson U55.0 Georgia Tech +2.0 0.0 L
09/29 #317 Ohio State -9.0 Indiana 0.0 +1.0 W
09/29 #319 Penn State +10.0 Iowa +3.0 0.0 W
09/29 #322 Tennessee -8.5 LSU +1.0 -0.5 L
09/29 #323 Arkansas O37.0 Georgia +2.0 +3.0 W
09/29 #337 Kansas State O44.0 Oklahoma +1.0 +2.0 W
09/29 #343 Washington -14.0 California +0.5 0.0 L
09/29 #347 Michigan St. +7.5 Northwestern +1.5 0.0 W
09/29 #347 Michigan St. U56.5 Northwestern +0.5 -0.5 W
09/29 #351 BYU -6.5 UNLV 0.0 +2.0 L
09/29 #354 Southern Miss -4.5 UAB -0.5 +1.0 L
09/29 #358 Marshall -4.5 Bowling Green -1.5 +1.5 W
09/29 #380 Idaho +12.0 Boise State +0.5 -1.5 L
09/29 #383 Oregon -14.5 Utah State +1.0 0.0 W
09/29 #395 Rice +3.5 Hawaii +0.5 -2.0 W
10/05 #104 BYU -19.0 Utah State +1.5 +1.5 W
10/06 #112 Boston Coll. -13.0 Temple +1.5 -0.5 W
10/06 #120 Wisconsin -14.0 Indiana +2.0 0.0 L
10/06 #128 Connecticut +4.0 Eastern Michigan 0.0 +2.5 W
10/06 #148 Wyoming +1.0 New Mexico +1.0 -3.5 P
10/06 #153 Oklahoma +3.0 Texas 0.0 0.0 W
10/06 #158 Washington -4.5* Southern Cal +1.5 +0.5 L
10/06 #161 Troy State +52.0 Miami -1.0 +2.5 W
10/06 #164 Nevada +13.0 UNLV -2.0 +2.0 L
10/06 #183 Hawaii +5.5 SMU +1.5 -0.5 W
10/06 #189 Northwestern U54.5 Ohio State +2.5 +1.0 L
10/13 #304 Florida State +7.0-05 Miami +0.5 -1.0 L
10/13 #305 Syracuse -3.0 Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 W
10/13 #307 Rice -6.0 Navy +1.5 +2.0 W
10/13 #321 Minnesota U66.5* Northwestern +4.5 +3.5 W
10/13 #324 Central Mich. +9.0 Ohio -2.5 +1.5 L
10/13 #340 Baylor +33.5 Nebraska +1.5 0.0 L
10/13 #345 West Virginia +12.0 Notre Dame -1.0 -0.5 W
10/13 #347 Troy State +27.0 Mississippi State 0.0 +3.5 W
10/13 #369 Oregon -13.0 California +2.0 -1.0 W
10/13 #369 Oregon U62.5 California +2.5 -0.5 W
10/13 #373 Middle TN St. -14.0 North Texas +2.0 -0.5 L
10/13 #375 Nevada U61.0 LA Tech +7.0 +1.0 L
10/19 #225 Boise State U61.5 Fresno State +2.5 -0.5 L
10/19 #226 Fresno State -14.5 Boise State -0.5 +2.5 L
10/20 #112 Boston College -7.5 Pittsburgh +1.0 +4.0 W
10/20 #130 Iowa State -8.0 Oklahoma State 0.0 -0.5 W
10/20 #134 Kansas -1.5 Missouri +2.5 -1.5 L
10/20 #141 Miami-Ohio +8.0 Ohio U. +1.5 +1.5 W
10/20 #182 Maryland -24.5 Duke -0.5 +0.5 W
10/20 #190 Virginia +12.0 Florida State +1.5 -1.5 L
10/25 #301 West Virginia +35.0 Miami -0.5 0.0 L
10/25 #301 West Virginia U57.0 Miami 0.0 -1.5 W
10/26 #303 Fresno State -5.5 Hawaii 0.0 +0.5 L
10/26 #303 Fresno State U62.0 Hawaii +1.0 -1.5 L
10/27 #321 Northwestern U57.0 Purdue +1.5 +3.0 L
10/27 #322 Purdue -5.0 Northwestern +1.0 0.0 P
10/27 #325 Kent State +13.5 Ohio U +0.5 +1.0 W
10/27 #341 Kansas +22.0 Kansas State +0.5 0.0 L
10/27 #354 Arkansas State +5.5 Idaho +0.5 +2.0 W
10/27 #356 Baylor +12.0 Texas Tech -1.5 -0.5 L
10/27 #362 Wyoming +8.5 UNLV +1.0 -1.0 L
10/27 #363 Georgia +18.5 Florida -1.0 -1.0 W
10/27 #367 Maryland +10.0* Florida State -0.5 0.0 L
10/27 #383 Washington +3.0 Arizona State +0.5 -1.5 W
10/27 #393 Nevada U63.5 Boise State +1.5 0.0 W
10/27 #395 Mississippi +10.5 LSU +1.0 +2.5 W
10/27 #401 BYU -13.0 San Diego State 0.0 +0.5 W
11/01 #103 No Carolina +5.0 Georgia Tech -0.5 +0.5 L
11/01 #106 BYU -14.0 Colorado State 0.0 +0.5 W
11/03 #132 Buffalo +16.0 Ohio U +1.5 -3.0 W
11/03 #138 Iowa State +5.5* Kansas State +1.0 -1.0 L
11/03 #142 Baylor +33.0 Texas +1.5 0.0 L
11/03 #145 Texas A&M +5.5 Texas Tech +3.5 +0.5 L
11/03 #149 Tennessee U43.0 Notre Dame +1.0 0.0 L
11/03 #151 Kentucky +9.0 Mississippi State -1.0 +1.5 W
11/03 #154 Air Force –12.0 Army +1.0 +1.0 L
11/03 #155 New Mexico -1.0 San Diego State -1.0 +1.0 W
11/03 #159 Utah 0.0 UNLV 0.0 -0.5 W
11/03 #164 Nevada +2.0 SMU +2.5 -1.0 W
11/03 #178 Oregon -10.5* Arizona State -0.5 +0.5 W
11/03 #181 Louisville –11.0* Tulane -0.5 0.0 W
11/03 #196 South Florida -10.5* Houston -0.5 +1.5 W
11/03 #197 UL Monroe +12.0 Idaho +0.5 -2.0 W
11/03 #200 Hawaii -11.5 San Jose State 0.0 +1.0 W
11/08 #303 Air Force U57.5 Colorado State +2.0 +0.5 W
11/10 #312 Maryland -7.0 Clemson 0.0 0.0 W
11/10 #322 Rutgers +21.0 Pittsburgh +1.0 0.0 L
11/10 #326 Illinois -9.5 Penn State 0.0 -1.0 L
11/10 #332 Michigan -15.0 Minnesota +0.5 0.0 W
11/10 #333 Bowling Green -5.5 Ohio 0.0 +1.0 W
11/10 #335 Buffalo +16.5 Army +0.5 +0.5 W
11/10 #355 Texas Tech -6.0 Oklahoma State 0.0 0.0 W
11/10 #360 Rice -17.5 Tulsa 0.0 +0.5 W
11/10 #361 BYU -21.5 Wyoming 0.0 +2.0 L
11/10 #363 Fresno State -16.5 SMU -0.5 0.0 W
11/10 #367 MS State U49.0 Alabama +3.5 0.0 W
11/10 #378 So Carolina +12.0 Florida +1.5 0.0 L
11/10 #379 Georgia Tech U53.0 Virginia +3.0 0.0 L
11/10 #383 Washington -3.0 Oregon State -1.5 +0.5 L
11/10 #399 Washington St. -1.5* Arizona State -0.5 +0.5 W
11/10 #407 Boise State U67.0 Hawaii +0.5 -0.5 W
11/17 #103 Bowling Green +7.0 Northwestern 0.0 +1.0 W
11/17 #110 Rutgers +29.0 Boston College +2.0 -2.0 L
11/17 #112 No Carolina -27.0 Duke +2.0 0.0 W
11/17 #115 Illinois +3.0 Ohio State +0.5 +3.5 W
11/17 #134 Arkansas -7.5 Mississippi St +0.5 +0.5 L
11/17 #138 Baylor +7.0 Oklahoma State -0.5 -1.5 L
11/17 #168 Auburn -3.0 Alabama 0.0 -1.5 L
11/17 #174 Stanford -23.5 California -0.5 0.0 L
11/17 #193 North Texas -3.5 Idaho +0.5 -3.0 W
11/17 #197 Miami Ohio +8.5 Hawaii +0.5 -3.0 W
11/22 #306 Illinois -17.0 Northwestern +0.5 +2.0 L
11/22 #305 Northwestern U68.0 Illinois +2.5 0.0 W
11/22 #307 Mississippi -2.5 Mississippi State -1.5 +0.5 L
11/23 #322 Bowling Green +3.5 Toledo -0.5 +0.5 W
11/23 #323 San Jose St U70.0 Fresno State +1.5 +1.0 W
11/23 #421 Louisville -7.0 TCU 0.0 +2.0 L
11/24 #342 Michigan -8.5 Ohio State 0.0 -0.5 L
11/24 #350 Kansas -3.5 Wyoming -0.5 +1.5 W
11/24 #353 LA Tech -18.5 Tulsa -0.5 -1.5 L
11/24 #362 Tennessee -24.5 Vanderbilt 0.0 +0.5 W
11/24 #376 Stanford -7.5* Notre Dame +0.5 0.0 L
12/01 #109 Penn State U55.0 Virginia 0.0 -0.5 W
12/01 #120 Indiana -6.5 Kentucky +0.5 -0.5 W
12/01 #130 Mississippi -15.0 Vanderbilt -0.5 +1.0 L
12/01 #133 BYU -5.0 Mississippi State +1.5 +0.5 L
12/01 #139 Tennessee +18.5 Florida +1.0 +2.0 W
12/01 #142 Oregon -9.5 Oregon State 0.0 0.0 L
12/01 #146 UCLA -10.5 Arizona State +2.5 -0.5 L
12/08 #303 BYU -2.5 Hawaii +1.0 +0.5 L
12/19 #134 Marshall +1.5 East Carolina +0.5 -0.5 W
12/27 #172 Stanford -2.5 Georgia Tech 0.0 +1.0 L
12/27 #173 Iowa State +7.0 Alabama 0.0 +0.5 W
12/28 #177 Boston Coll U52.0 Georgia +0.5 0.0 W
12/31 #219 Louisiana Tech +7.0 Clemson +0.5 +0.5 L
12/31 #224 Fresno State -5.0 Michigan State +1.0 +0.5 L
01/01 #239 Illinois +3.0 LSU 0.0 0.0 L
01/02 #241 Maryland +16.0 Florida 0.0 +2.0 L
Picks and wrapup from CFB 2001
- Colin, can we discuss your 2002 handicapping? (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 5:01 pm
- Sure. Here are some things to start with: (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:16 pm
- Picks and wrapup from CFB 2002 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:21 pm
- Picks and wrapup from CFB 2001 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:26 pm
- I had everything except 2001 until now. -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:57 pm
- Sorry for the redundancy. I took the opportunity... -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:13 pm
- Sorry for the redundancy. I took the opportunity... -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:13 pm
- Introduction to me and my methods -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:30 pm
- This was very helpful! (nt) -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 7:05 pm
- Sample picks post -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:49 pm
- Overall Colin Caster monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm
- Minor corrections to monitored record -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:01 pm
- Picks and wrapup from CFB 2001 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:26 pm
- Thanks! We have alot to cover. Section #1 -- Ben -- 18 Jul 03, 6:53 pm
- Good questions -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 7:36 pm
- Nugget -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:01 am
- Yes, you chose a good post -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:31 am
- I leave no stone unturned -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:18 am
- I leave no stone unturned -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:18 am
- Sometimes the enemy is looking at you in the mirror -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 5:52 am
- Exactly -- good stuff, Ben. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:32 am
- sorry colin -- garr -- 19 Jul 03, 5:08 pm
- LOL -- I wondered if you were going to weigh in! -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 5:13 pm
- how 'bout UTEP? -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 19 Jul 03, 5:39 pm
- You're an evil man. -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:12 pm
- yeah -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 20 Jul 03, 4:23 pm
- ISU? Groannnnnn -- daringly -- 21 Jul 03, 9:04 am
- ISU? Groannnnnn -- daringly -- 21 Jul 03, 9:04 am
- yeah -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 20 Jul 03, 4:23 pm
- You're an evil man. -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 6:12 pm
- how 'bout UTEP? -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 19 Jul 03, 5:39 pm
- FYI 28+ Dogs 2001 -- Ben -- 22 Jul 03, 4:09 am
- Are you looking at a particular subset? -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 2:28 pm
- Just your subset, not overall, comprende? (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 2:58 pm
- Comprendo. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 3:13 pm
- Comprendo. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 3:13 pm
- Just your subset, not overall, comprende? (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 2:58 pm
- Yes, you chose a good post -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:31 am
- Nugget -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:01 am
- Very Early Season Handicapping -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 4:17 am
- Yes, I do code for returning starters -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:43 am
- statistical analysis software -- Snow -- 19 Jul 03, 5:19 am
- I do my own stats -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 9:53 am
- Understand the Sport/Oddsmaking -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:35 am
- Understand the Sport/Oddsmaking -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:35 am
- Section 2 - Home/Away Performance -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 10:38 am
- Another controversial topic -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 11:05 am
- snow = stanford, Ben = Yosh or CC or WillyH (nt) -- papa joe -- 19 Jul 03, 12:12 pm
- this from papa joe/Billy Ford/The Obvious Guy/MT Handed/etc. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jul 03, 12:24 pm
- snow=CC Yosh=WillyHoppy (nt) -- papa joe -- 30 Jul 03, 5:36 am
- papa joe = Oliver Stone (nt) -- Ben -- 19 Jul 03, 1:25 pm
- snow=CC Yosh=WillyHoppy (nt) -- papa joe -- 30 Jul 03, 5:36 am
- Section 3 - Handling the Dregs of CFB -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 4:28 am
- Ben -- Colin Caster -- 20 Jul 03, 2:09 pm
- Just wait until you have plenty of time to respond in detail (nt) -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 5:43 pm
- Continuing this thread -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 4:13 pm
- I knew your answer from reading other posts -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 6:07 pm
- Cheers. -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 6:50 pm
- Well -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 7:16 pm
- scratching -- Colin Caster -- 29 Jul 03, 7:29 pm
- Helps alot. Thx! (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 30 Jul 03, 5:18 am
- Helps alot. Thx! (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 30 Jul 03, 5:18 am
- scratching -- Colin Caster -- 29 Jul 03, 7:29 pm
- Well -- Ben Dover -- 28 Jul 03, 7:16 pm
- Cheers. -- Colin Caster -- 28 Jul 03, 6:50 pm
- Just wait until you have plenty of time to respond in detail (nt) -- Ben -- 20 Jul 03, 5:43 pm
- Nice To Talk Football!!!!! (nt) -- Paul Feeney -- 30 Jul 03, 11:54 am
- Hey, Paul! (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 30 Jul 03, 2:39 pm
- Picks and wrapup from CFB 2002 -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:21 pm
- Sure. Here are some things to start with: (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 18 Jul 03, 6:16 pm
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