CFB Forum

Limited Reasoning Part II

Posted By: Ben Dover
Date: 26 Aug 03, 9:23 pm

In Response To: Two additions (Ben Dover)

Kansas State -37 Troy State – The key here is Kansas State’s defense versus Troy’s offense. After watching the California game one would expect Troy State would have room to operate. However, Troy State’s offense is no where near California’s class. We know Troy State can’t run here (Cal couldn’t) as the Trojans are unlikely to reach 60 yards rushing. So now the burden is on the quarterback. Cal coach Jeff Tedford found ways to move the ball via the air last week for nearly 400 yards. Troy State’s Hansell Bearden is not anywhere near that class of quarterback (43% completions, 6 TDs, 11 Ints). In fact, Troy State threw for just 127 ypg in 2002. It will be difficult to break out of the goose egg with those statistics. Consider Bill Synder was pissed about his defensive performance after the Cal game. Pass the salt, because it's going to get rubbed into whatever wounds the Cats are licking. Snyder promised that mistakes made against Cal will be identified and corrections will be made as K-State prepares for its home opener. Even during the Cal game, Snyder showed his displeasure on the sideline, including a face-to-face shouting match with co-defensive coordinator Bret Bielema. When quizzed whether upcoming opponents will test the defense, Snyder fired off a one-liner that wasn't funny. "They (K-State's defense) are going to get tested on Monday," he said. On offense, we know Kansas State is awesome with two superstars who lead the way for over 300 rushing yards and 200 passing yards last week. Troy State’s defense is not as good as Cal. The projected starters for the defensive line average just 247 lbs. All new linebackers, in fact the front seven returns just 1 starter. Troy State head coach Larry Blakeney over the summer described his team as “depleted” after the loss of 22 seniors and 12 starters. But it gets worse for Troy State; they have one of the nation’s worst special teams (#113 in 2002). In 2002 consider this, 4 punt blocks, 5 punt return touchdowns, and the top return units graduated. Suddenly the Kansas State offense does not need to produce so much when one or two touchdowns occur with the specials. You see, special teams are not a fluke. They are a third of the game. A young team and bad specials go hand in hand to demoralize a team. Note that I enjoyed many wins the last few years with Troy State taking big numbers from Nebraska and Miami Florida. However, those teams were disinterested facing a much more talented Troy State team. The Huskers, in particular, lighten up on non-conference pasties because it is very difficult to get them into Lincoln in what was considered a gentleman’s agreement not to run up the score since the days Tom “The Warden” Osborne crushed real foes and let the rest get away unscathed. To compare Kansas State to the lethargic Michigan’s, USC’s, and Nebraska’s of the world is a mistake when evaluating large pointspread games (30+). Kansas State is 11-1 ATS since 1998 when the pointspread is -30 to -49. Synder knows the pointspread and how it covering it influences human polls. He demands 60 minutes of football. I am not trendy very often but only when I feel the trends back up the facts. Synder is an incredible 44-17-2 ATS at home, 23-5 ATS versus non-conference, and 33-7 ATS laying -20 or more. Kansas State has beaten non-BCS teams by an average of 53 ppg and last year outscored foes by 33 ppg. Kansas State 2002 margin of victory combined with schedule strength when compared to Troy State is 49.7 points. When Synder wants blood he gets it. With only McNeese State and Massachusetts on deck, we will likely see the starters into the 4th quarter no matter what the margin is on the scoreboard. Keep in mind, we did see Synder puts the defensive starters back in to protect a shutout late in the 4th quarter versus Temple up 40-0 back in 1999 when the opposing coach was a Kansas State graduate. That is all I need to know. Colin will be on the other side of this. Colin 1-0 fading K State and big numbers in 2003.

Virginia Tech -20 Central Florida – Central Florida has a super quarterback, Ryan Schneider (61.6%, 3770 yards in 2002). But two 1000 yard wide receivers are gone. The offensive line only has two players with starting experience. A big problem is Central Florida does not have a left tackle. Dan Veenstra, moved from guard to tackle little more than a week ago, is penciled in to start at guard against No. 9 Virginia Tech next Sunday. Larry Peoples is now the likely starter at left tackle after offensive coordinator/line coach Robert McFarland discovered how much more comfortable Veenstra was at guard than tackle. Not good facing an outstanding defensive line that produced 42 sacks last year. The Hokie defense is like Kansas State this week, excited to atone for a bad performance. In this case, Virginia Tech played poorly in the last five games starting with the deflating Pittsburgh loss. The Hokies say last year's late swoon has provided serious motivation for this season. They desperately want to get back to playing the aggressive, nasty-style defense that has been synonymous with Tech for most of the past decade. Linebacker Mikal Baaqee: "We're going to be ferocious, we're going to be fast, and we're going to be ready to get after some people." With nine starters returning expect to see a return to previous Hokie standards. On offense there are close to a half-dozen players at "skill positions" who have been very impressive either in regular season games or so far during fall practice, ranging from tailback Kevin Jones and quarterbacks Bryan Randall and Marcus Vick to receivers DeAngelo Hall and Ernest Wilford. Even the playbook seems more exciting than usual. "This offense will be explosive," said defensive end Nathaniel Adibi, who goes against it each day in practice. "Very explosive." Central Florida has been decent on defense, similar to Marshall. In the offseason they lost two projected starters along the front seven. Last year facing offenses that are similar athletically to Virginia Tech, UCF allowed an average of 450 ypg, including 250 ypg rushing to Toledo and Syracuse, both losses at home. Keep in mind UCF is similar to Marshall. Last year a weaker Virginia Tech team played Marshall, winning by 26, and rushing for 395 yards while allowing just 34. This type of domination is expected again. Now we get to the fact UCF has a new punter. Do you think a punt will be blocked? Virginia Tech is a national championship contender.

Vandy Update: C Pettit who missed LY is out for good, no big deal. CB Morris, who suffered an injured tendon in his left thumb earlier in preseason camp, has managed to climb back onto the first team. MIKE ORGAN - Tennessean.com
"But there finally is a position — cornerback — where the Commodores are blessed with quality players and plenty of them.

FYI: The eight games far, have moved 8 points off openers. Expect it to continue.

Messages In This Thread

Week 1 bets so far -- Ben Dover -- 20 Aug 03, 12:19 pm

Cal and K-State -- Lawboy2000 -- 20 Aug 03, 12:23 pm

Ramblings on K St/Cal -- Ben Dover -- 20 Aug 03, 6:11 pm

If you like Cal you might try under instead (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 20 Aug 03, 6:29 pm

Oops they bet it from 66 to 62.5 at Lenny's place (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 20 Aug 03, 8:41 pm

Limited reasoning -- Ben Dover -- 20 Aug 03, 11:39 pm

Wow. Just curious. Can you put a quick bio out on your background? (nt) -- Fezzik -- 21 Aug 03, 12:31 am

Quick Bio -- Ben Dover -- 21 Aug 03, 7:36 pm

What kind of response is that? (nt) -- Goats -- 21 Aug 03, 7:53 pm

humor from The Jerk -- Ben Dover -- 21 Aug 03, 8:02 pm

Guess I don't get it -- Goats -- 21 Aug 03, 8:14 pm

I will come out with more info -- Ben Dover -- 21 Aug 03, 8:21 pm

dont forget the son of a sharecropper (nt) -- garr -- 21 Aug 03, 10:39 pm

Quick Bio II -- Ben Dover -- 24 Aug 03, 8:00 am

QUESTION FOR BEN DOVER -- rick -- 24 Aug 03, 8:28 am

answers -- Ben Dover -- 24 Aug 03, 9:05 am

AGREE WITH YOU BEN -- rick -- 24 Aug 03, 10:30 am

To name a few -- Ben Dover -- 24 Aug 03, 11:01 am

More Important, do you change the babes in your profile? (nt) -- Howard Kelly -- 24 Aug 03, 11:30 am

No, just the poses (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 24 Aug 03, 1:26 pm

if that is limited, i love to see in-depth (nt) -- garr -- 21 Aug 03, 9:54 am

Two additions -- Ben Dover -- 26 Aug 03, 10:05 am

Limited Reasoning Part II -- Ben Dover -- 26 Aug 03, 9:23 pm

Colin, I also gave you a gift at CRIS, the half is my gift from me to you -- Ben Dover -- 26 Aug 03, 9:34 pm

Thanks -- think that half point will show up elsewhere? (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 27 Aug 03, 10:38 am

I expect a yo-yo, Dog, then Fav -- Ben Dover -- 27 Aug 03, 6:16 pm

ben, i just have to say your write-ups are awesome. thank you. (nt) -- garr -- 26 Aug 03, 10:04 pm

Garr, thx, enjoy Vegas, stop by the Hard Rock -- Ben Dover -- 26 Aug 03, 10:35 pm

need a little clarification here, ben -- garr -- 21 Aug 03, 9:57 am

speaking for Ben -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 21 Aug 03, 10:19 am

Those were Mr T's early leans vs soft Ip lines (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 21 Aug 03, 3:02 pm

ok thanks (nt) -- garr -- 21 Aug 03, 10:35 pm

Played K State -13.5, 2nd half -- Ben Dover -- 23 Aug 03, 6:34 pm

One for Week 3 -- Ben Dover -- 1 Sep 03, 6:21 am

Others for Week 3 -- Ben Dover -- 1 Sep 03, 10:40 am

Week 2 4-6 ATS, 4-7 ATS YTD -- Ben Dover -- 1 Sep 03, 9:28 pm

LOL. Nice writeup. -- Colin Caster -- 1 Sep 03, 9:43 pm

I know Sat plays are off limits but what would have come available for you? -- Ben Dover -- 1 Sep 03, 9:50 pm

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