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Florida Under 8 wins -160

Posted By: Rick Peterman
Date: 9 Aug 03, 4:37 pm

I just bet Florida Under 8 wins -160

Here is the assumptions :
Tenn .49
at Kentucky .54
Ole Miss .60
at LSU .34
at Arkansas .44
Georgia .43
Vanderbilt 1.00
at S. Carolina .64
San Jose State .95
at Miami .17
Florida A&M 1.00
Florida State .48

Total of 7.08 expected wins. Under 8 -160, even though alot of wood looks real good to me.

Here's some reasonings that I used to get the estimates above. Lines are College Games of the Year from Imperial Palace :
Florida State -1.5 at Florida...thus the .48 for the FSU game
Miami -10.5 vs Florida - thus the .17 for the Miami game
Tennessee Pick at Flroida - thus the .49 (arguably should be .5 I guess..but small diff).
Florida is a 3 point dog at Arkansas. thus the .44 in the Ark game.
Florida is a 3 point dog vs Georgia in a neutral field thus the .43 in the Georgia game.
LSU is -2 vs Auburn, Auburn is -1.5 at Arkansas. This tells me that LSU at home vs Arkansas would be -6.5, and since Arkansas is -3 vs Florida, that means Ark and Florida are equivalent teams...thus -6.5 = .34.
and the rest uses similar type of logic.

Spurrier gone.
Grossman gone.

Big problems...the market is forecasting a 7-5 team. Well, at least IP is forecasting that, but the sharps out there haven't slammed those lines, so I'm using that as a first line of defense as the fair market value.

Meanwhile, I belive the U8 -160 is more of an aberrant line. Even though I can bet more on the Under 8 -160 than I can on the total of all the games at IP ($500 max per game) at those lines, my believe is that the IP lines are a much truer indication of future lines. And that the Under 8 -160 is a good bet.

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Messages In This Thread

Florida Under 8 wins -160 -- Rick Peterman -- 9 Aug 03, 4:37 pm
Not bad -- Colin Caster -- 10 Aug 03, 5:12 am
You gotta get some bets down at the IP -- Rick Peterman -- 10 Aug 03, 7:46 pm
Actually... -- Colin Caster -- 11 Aug 03, 4:45 am
IP -- Rick Peterman -- 11 Aug 03, 5:13 am
Englestad -- Colin Caster -- 11 Aug 03, 8:14 am
Very well known Nazi, the guy was a heavy duty collector (nt) -- Ben Dover -- 11 Aug 03, 4:40 pm
u smoke cronic or what? -- THe OG -- 11 Aug 03, 2:39 pm
thanks for your interesting input and commentary. (nt) -- Rick Peterman -- 11 Aug 03, 2:44 pm
yw (nt) -- THe OG -- 12 Aug 03, 3:02 pm
Florida under 8... -- Lawboy2000 -- 15 Aug 03, 11:59 am

 


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