| |
NFL Forum
Can't agree with that
Posted By: John May In Response To: over-evaluation (rainmandon)
Date: 23 Aug 01, 4:27 pm
one way to limit the overvaluation (or at least to limit the extent of bankroll damage) would be to follow Dan Gordon's advice of putting a cap on how much you bet on a "best bet". Dan limits his best plays to 50% higher than his regular plays.
The more I read of Gordon's advice the less I like it. You assess your percentage advantage. You factor in an error term based on the variance of your estimates and calculate your optimal bet. You do anything else you lose money or risk high ROR.
"Capping" a high bet is the sort of trick sports writers use to appeal to the innate conservative instincts of their audience. It can't be justified via math.
If you want to reduce the risk over-estimating your advantage then you'd want to be down-sizing all your bets, or maybe just making fewer.
- The Book: Sharp Sports Betting -- Joseph P -- 23 Aug 01, 11:01 am
- Short answer -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 12:43 pm
- over-evaluation -- rainmandon -- 23 Aug 01, 1:12 pm
- Can't agree with that -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 4:27 pm
- John is dead on. -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 11:59 pm
- Wrong -- StevieY -- 25 Aug 01, 11:42 am
- For newcomers to this page, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 11:50 am
- I'm sorry but -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 1:45 am
- I'm sorry but... -- StevieY -- 26 Aug 01, 10:32 am
- The human element -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 2:34 pm
- the crux, IMO -- Colin Caster -- 26 Aug 01, 4:57 pm
- More nonsense -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 8:14 am
- A proof -- John May -- 28 Aug 01, 11:10 am
- Grown-ups???? -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Aug 01, 11:49 am
- Grown-ups???? -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Aug 01, 11:49 am
- More nonsense -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Aug 01, 8:14 am
- the crux, IMO -- Colin Caster -- 26 Aug 01, 4:57 pm
- The human element -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 2:34 pm
- ok ok -- fezzik -- 28 Aug 01, 12:00 am
- I'm sorry but -- John May -- 26 Aug 01, 1:45 am
- For newcomers to this page, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 11:50 am
- Wrong -- StevieY -- 25 Aug 01, 11:42 am
- John is dead on. -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 11:59 pm
- My approach should work for you -- Stanford Wong -- 23 Aug 01, 5:38 pm
- This is terribly wrong -- Kim Lee -- 23 Aug 01, 7:30 pm
- Kim Lee, I recognize you from bj21 -- Compador -- 24 Aug 01, 12:40 am
- Why sports betting is brutal -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:10 am
- re: poker -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 8:30 am
- Blackjack, poker, sports -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:51 am
- bj -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 9:58 am
- Playing level -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 12:50 pm
- Playing level -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 12:50 pm
- bj -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 9:58 am
- Question to Kim Lee from a novice?? -- big nguyen -- 24 Aug 01, 12:01 pm
- Reducing Vigorish and Scalping -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 1:17 pm
- Your well on your way to winning -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 11:53 pm
- Further explanation requested. -- samo666 -- 25 Aug 01, 2:08 am
- 1st half betting -- fezzik -- 26 Aug 01, 10:28 pm
- 1st half betting -- fezzik -- 26 Aug 01, 10:28 pm
- Blackjack, poker, sports -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:51 am
- re: poker -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 8:30 am
- Why sports betting is brutal -- Kim Lee -- 24 Aug 01, 8:10 am
- Kim Lee, I recognize you from bj21 -- Compador -- 24 Aug 01, 12:40 am
- over-evaluation -- rainmandon -- 23 Aug 01, 1:12 pm
- Short answer -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 12:43 pm
| |
NFL Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press