NFL Forum

Winning by hitting 52%

Posted By: fezzik
Date: 30 Jul 01, 10:50 pm

Many "experts" out there advocate never playing anything but straight bets, and consider most parlays, even 2-team parlays to be "sucker" bets.

However, based on current 2team parlay promotions that pay 14-5, you should consider making the 2-team parlay a main staple of your betting lineup.

Let's look at the math at straight bets. It's been well documented that when making straight wagers, throwing darts, you will lose at a 4.54% clip, since in the longrun you will lose $10 of every $220 bet if playing at a .500 clip. A 52.4% winning rate is needed to get into the black, or expressed differently you have to "add 2.4% to your prob. of victory" above the dart-throwers 50% to overcome the vig.

When betting 2 team parlays, if you are a dart thrower, you will win only 1 out of 4. If betting $50 on each, you will lose $150, win $140, and thus lose $10 on every $200 bet (a 5% disadvantage).

This is why a few books offer these. Their hold is actually greater per dollar bet by a dart thrower who bets 2team parlays vs. one that bets straight bets.

But the win rate needed to breakeven drops from 52.4% to around 51.3%. Oh my yes! Now you need to juice that 50% probability by only 1.3% to get into the black. A much easier task than adding 2.4% to that 50%.

Now it's true that these parlays will add to your variance. No question there. But the reduced breakeven "p" of under 51.3% is just too powerful to give up. Mix and match 2 teamers, making your basic unit bet smaller (with more plays)and put about the same amount at risk as you had intended to do playing straight bets, and play some 2teamers when:

1) A shop offers you 14-5
2) You like certain games to play that week and
3) That 14-5 shop offers the best available line on those games*

* If a separate shop offers a better line, it is usually preferable to bet that game separate, and not as a 14-5 parlay.

For any naysayers out there, run some simulations with low 50% (or high 50%!) type winning percentages. It won't take long to realize how powerful this technique is. You are basically laying -105 instead of -110. With a "half-vig" special, one can put up with ALOT more risk, due to the higher return. And the 2team parlays are riskier, but certainly not to any signficant level compared to the vigorish savings.

"Even I can pick 52%!"

.........Flounder. Animal House

Messages In This Thread

Winning by hitting 52% -- fezzik -- 30 Jul 01, 10:50 pm

Mathematical analysis -- Don Schlesinger -- 31 Jul 01, 5:37 pm

Very nice, but what about... -- Flipper -- 31 Jul 01, 6:03 pm

One more option -- James -- 31 Jul 01, 6:19 pm

-105 vig -- fezzik -- 31 Jul 01, 6:37 pm

You can get +100 for NFL bets (nt) -- StevieY -- 31 Jul 01, 7:04 pm

Has anyone figured out -- James -- 1 Aug 01, 12:25 pm

Lots of bad bettors -- StevieY -- 1 Aug 01, 3:20 pm

A possible way -- David Matthews -- 1 Aug 01, 4:57 pm

I doubt it -- James -- 2 Aug 01, 9:31 am

Volume :-) (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 1 Aug 01, 6:05 pm

+100 NFL -- lepto -- 13 Aug 01, 3:02 am

Backchannel, please. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 13 Aug 01, 8:10 pm

No, calculations are incorrect -- Don Schlesinger -- 31 Jul 01, 8:25 pm

Not surprised. Thanks. -- James -- 1 Aug 01, 10:20 am

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