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Tough Question

Posted By: fezzik
Date: 18 Aug 01, 4:03 am

In Response To: Parlaying NFL Games of the Year (docriver)

We could write an entire book on this, but here goes:

1. I like the correlation theory; I do think NFL team power ratings don't vary nearly as much from boy to eoy as college teams. So I'd rather double up on a college team than a pro one.
2. I like that you are not playing back to back weeks. Any NFL team off a W is a little more likely to come up flat the very next week.
3. For a Pro team, if you are going to bet 1 of the games anyway, I'd think it profitable to parlay the next one along if getting 14-5 (since you only need 51.3% on that next game to be profitable, and some correlation should help). At 13-5, I'm not so sure the correlation overcomes the vig.

My conclusion: A great idea. But I'll look to play this idea in college. Example? If you play Mich +2 vs. WASH week 1, then MIA(Fla) -10 vs. Wash week 2 looks darn good to me........

Messages In This Thread

Parlaying NFL Games of the Year -- docriver -- 17 Aug 01, 8:49 am

Tough Question -- fezzik -- 18 Aug 01, 4:03 am

college games -- docriver -- 18 Aug 01, 6:58 am

College Games of the Year -- AllanODale -- 21 Aug 01, 8:08 pm

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