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1988 thru 2000 data

Posted By: docriver
Date: 17 Aug 01, 2:51 pm

In Response To: Pythagorean Formula for wins (docriver)

I got the data of W, PF, PA for 1988 thru 2000. I actually had 86 & 87 too, but I deleted those becuase the replacement players of 87.

WvsW expW vs W
88-89 0.431 0.488
89-90 0.420 0.365
90-91 0.403 0.482
91-92 0.321 0.536
92-93 0.514 0.559
93-94 0.386 0.430
94-95 0.418 0.457
95-96 0.433 0.431
96-97 0.349 0.408
97-98 0.490 0.453
98-99 -0.011 0.080
99-00 0.361 0.396
Average 0.376 0.424

notes ... to adjust for the years when Carolina, Jax and Cleveland came in, I just assumed they didn't exist. That's why the 98-99 data looks like such a low correlation because they only won 2 games, thus there were 14 wins spread out among the rest of the teams. Also, I did the correlations using the Pythag theorem of ^2 and ^1.8 - and the biggest difference I got was .002...so, at least for generic football, it doesn't matter which number is used. 3 out of 12 correlations were in favor of Win vs Win, and 9 out of 12 were in favor of expected Win vs Win. Of the years that the expected Wins outperformed, it was by an average of .074...whereas in the three years that Win v Win outperformed, it was by .055, .002 and .037

Anyway, it looks to me like the Pythag formula has some use, as it does increase correlations by .05, not great, but it seems meaningful. Can any of of you math geniuses tell me if this is enough data to be meaningful? For example, I'll probably be using this formula when considering strength of schedule...am I crazy to do so?

Some other interesting notes regarding the 2000 season :
Minnesota way outperformed, they won 11 games, expected to win 8.5...the O/U now is 9 and if you think like Fezzik, even this is high. SD underperformed the most. They were expected to win 4.6 games, but only won 1. Their O/U this year is 7/6.5. Other teams that overperformed their expected by 1 game or more : Denver, Detroit, NY Giants, NY Jets, St. Louis and Tennessee. Teams that underperformed their expected by 1 game or more : Carolina, Dallas, Jacksonville, KC, New England, San Francisco.

Of course, I would eliminate any teams that had a lot of personnel changes, head coach or players...those would be Det, Da, StL, Car, Dal, KC and NE...leaving the following :

Den (expected 9.95 - O/U is 10.5, schedule remains about same)
NYG (expected 10.05 - O/U is even lower at 9)
NYJ (expected 8 - O/U is 8)
Ten (expected 12 actually won 13, but O/U is even lower than last year's expcted - 10.5)
Jax (expected 8.8 - I think O/U is 8.5/9)
SF (expected 7.39 - O/U is 7.5)

So, based off this info, it looks like Den U10.5, NYG O9, Ten O10.5 are decent bets...however, with this info combined with other information (such as teams with O/U 10 or higher are usually not good bets, and Fezzik's dislike of NYG), I would pare down this to just one single wager...Den U10.5.

Messages In This Thread

Pythagorean Formula for wins -- docriver -- 16 Aug 01, 12:02 pm
Pythagorean -- Editor -- 16 Aug 01, 1:33 pm
tails? -- docriver -- 16 Aug 01, 1:57 pm
Tails -- Editor -- 16 Aug 01, 3:50 pm
Starting point -- Colin Caster -- 16 Aug 01, 9:40 pm
1988 thru 2000 data -- docriver -- 17 Aug 01, 2:51 pm
also.. -- docriver -- 17 Aug 01, 3:01 pm
Nice work! Testing significance of correlation differences -- Colin Caster -- 19 Aug 01, 1:01 pm
email stats? -- docriver -- 19 Aug 01, 7:18 pm
Sure -- Colin Caster -- 19 Aug 01, 10:13 pm
Results (and computation) -- Colin Caster -- 20 Aug 01, 1:02 pm
Re: Bill James -- T. Hopper -- 19 Aug 01, 2:01 pm
I am told that the exponent for college football is 1.68 (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Aug 01, 10:16 pm

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