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NFL Forum
Pythagorean
Posted By: Editor In Response To: Pythagorean Formula for wins (docriver)
Date: 16 Aug 01, 1:33 pm
The Pythagorean has problems at the tails. Research going back to the 80's suggests that a more accurate exponent is available. If memory serves, changing the "2" to something like "1.8" improves the descriptive ability of the formula.
Of course, projecting future wins can be improved by taking into account the # of wins the 2nd season back. I'm not sure where formulas like this can be found on the net, but rest assured the sabremetricians(sp?) have tackled this one before. Try stathead.com as a starting point.
- Pythagorean Formula for wins -- docriver -- 16 Aug 01, 12:02 pm
- Pythagorean -- Editor -- 16 Aug 01, 1:33 pm
- tails? -- docriver -- 16 Aug 01, 1:57 pm
- Tails -- Editor -- 16 Aug 01, 3:50 pm
- Starting point -- Colin Caster -- 16 Aug 01, 9:40 pm
- Starting point -- Colin Caster -- 16 Aug 01, 9:40 pm
- Tails -- Editor -- 16 Aug 01, 3:50 pm
- 1988 thru 2000 data -- docriver -- 17 Aug 01, 2:51 pm
- also.. -- docriver -- 17 Aug 01, 3:01 pm
- Nice work! Testing significance of correlation differences -- Colin Caster -- 19 Aug 01, 1:01 pm
- email stats? -- docriver -- 19 Aug 01, 7:18 pm
- Sure -- Colin Caster -- 19 Aug 01, 10:13 pm
- Results (and computation) -- Colin Caster -- 20 Aug 01, 1:02 pm
- Results (and computation) -- Colin Caster -- 20 Aug 01, 1:02 pm
- Sure -- Colin Caster -- 19 Aug 01, 10:13 pm
- Nice work! Testing significance of correlation differences -- Colin Caster -- 19 Aug 01, 1:01 pm
- Re: Bill James -- T. Hopper -- 19 Aug 01, 2:01 pm
- I am told that the exponent for college football is 1.68 (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 19 Aug 01, 10:16 pm
- tails? -- docriver -- 16 Aug 01, 1:57 pm
- Pythagorean -- Editor -- 16 Aug 01, 1:33 pm
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