NFL Forum

guesses

Posted By: Math Boy
Date: 6 Sep 01, 6:25 am

In Response To: some kicking stats (docriver)

2. even with the biased data selection, one can see that fewer field goals are attempted and made in college. but that leads us to the question of why. is it because with the higher O/U in college that more TDs are being scored, thus no need for the FG Attempt? Is it because the with higher O/U that each point is worth less, so one needs to go for it more often than kick the FG, especially when the O/U is higher, it is easier to fall behind by more, thus the tendency to forgo a 40 yard field goal on 4th and 2. the reasons just listed only point towards high O/U games...but if what is mentioned above is true, does that follow for lower, NFL-like O/U games?

My guess is that NFL kickers have a longer range, and can be used more often. And NCAA games have higher average scores. So given a team is in field goal range, there is less chance a field goal is needed.

conclusion : still none. the data seems to show that the kicking game seems to be worse in college, but how much worse is very unclear....and that is key in deciding if it is worse enough to make the value of the 3 low enough to make a game not teasable. one of the keys continues to be : try to know the kickers very very well. if both are good, then you can treat it like a pro game for teasers (assuming O/U is lower).

That's what I am starting to do. Gathering data on invididual team's kicking performances.

Messages In This Thread

college teasers revisited -- docriver -- 6 Sep 01, 2:22 am

some kicking stats -- docriver -- 6 Sep 01, 2:48 am

guesses -- Math Boy -- 6 Sep 01, 6:25 am

NFL Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press