NFL Forum

some kicking stats

Posted By: docriver
Date: 6 Sep 01, 2:48 am

In Response To: college teasers revisited (docriver)

from ESPN.com statistics pages :

NFL Averages
FGA/G = 1.85
FGM/G = 1.47
% made = 79.7%

College (top 55 kickers in Division 1) Averages
FGA/G = 1.71
FGM/G = 1.28
% made = 74.8%

a few notes and comments :
1. the college kickers are not the top 55 teams, but the top 55 kickes...so it is data that is self selected for the best...i could not find a full list of college kickers
2. even with the biased data selection, one can see that fewer field goals are attempted and made in college. but that leads us to the question of why. is it because with the higher O/U in college that more TDs are being scored, thus no need for the FG Attempt? Is it because the with higher O/U that each point is worth less, so one needs to go for it more often than kick the FG, especially when the O/U is higher, it is easier to fall behind by more, thus the tendency to forgo a 40 yard field goal on 4th and 2. the reasons just listed only point towards high O/U games...but if what is mentioned above is true, does that follow for lower, NFL-like O/U games?
3. the FG% made is lower in college by 5%. it is probably likely that this difference is even higher for many reasons.

conclusion : still none. the data seems to show that the kicking game seems to be worse in college, but how much worse is very unclear....and that is key in deciding if it is worse enough to make the value of the 3 low enough to make a game not teasable. one of the keys continues to be : try to know the kickers very very well. if both are good, then you can treat it like a pro game for teasers (assuming O/U is lower).

tangential question : if the Minnesota Vikings are a 2 point home dog to the St. Louis Rams, and the O/U is 52, is that game teasable?

Messages In This Thread

college teasers revisited -- docriver -- 6 Sep 01, 2:22 am

some kicking stats -- docriver -- 6 Sep 01, 2:48 am

guesses -- Math Boy -- 6 Sep 01, 6:25 am

NFL Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press