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college teasers revisited

Posted By: docriver
Date: 6 Sep 01, 2:22 am

Syracuse -8.5 O/U 43.5
Georgia +2 O/U 42

Is this teasable?

Yes argument : yes, because the O/U is lower than most college games, so the distribution of the scores will be much more like those of the NFL....thus the 3s and 7s are much more important than usual college games, and be closer to that of NFL importance....thus making it profitable to tease.

No argument : no, because there are other variabilities, such as you will see outliers of scores more often in College than in Pros, for example, a 20 point dog in the pros will never win, but in College, although rare, it can happen and does with a higher frequency (the Fezzik argument). and...in the pros, all the kickers are pretty high caliber, which leads to the importance of the 3. In college, kickers are sometimes very poor even for a BCS team re: Florida State recently, and thus the 3 may no longer a key number....so unless you know the kicking game of each of the schools, the distribution may be more spread out in college than in pros as the teams go for the first down at the opponents 25 more often than trying the field goal (Math Boy argument).

P.S. Math Boy & Fezzik - if either of you feel I have not protrayed your arguments correctly, please correct me.

The crux of the argument comes down to the distribution of possible scores. The yes is saying O/U is the only determination and all other factors are minimal. The no are saying distribution is more spread out in college and even with a lower O/U, it is still not teasable.

Which do you think is correct?

Messages In This Thread

college teasers revisited -- docriver -- 6 Sep 01, 2:22 am

some kicking stats -- docriver -- 6 Sep 01, 2:48 am

guesses -- Math Boy -- 6 Sep 01, 6:25 am

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