NFL Forum

when to tease

Posted By: Don Peszynski
Date: 4 Sep 01, 8:19 pm

In Response To: When To Bet a Teaser (Goats)

Let's start by assuming that we can make straight bets and 2-team 6 pt teasers at -110. This means that if the numbers we capture by teasing give us 20% more individual wins, making a straight bet and teasing are equivalent, since .724^2 = .524. Now we'll assume the following frequencies for fave victories by a certain number of pts. 1-2%; 2-2%; 3-10%; 4-3%; 5-2%; 6-3%; 7-6%; 8-2%; 9-1%. Say the line is 1-1/2. Teasing gives us an extra 26% individual wins. If the line moves a point in our favor (theoretically down to 1/2) and we've already teased we get an extra 2% by capturing the "1". If it goes against us (up to 2-1/2), then we've lost 2% because by teasing early we don't capture the "8". But we're still profitable, just not optimal, since we're still capturing 24% more victories.

But what happens when the line is 2-1/2? If it goes down a point we gain an extra 2%, or 28%. But if it goes up to 3-1/2 and we've already played our teaser at 2-1/2, we're only gaining 16% more victories and we've changed a winning play into a losing one, theoretically.

So we have to be more careful when the line is 2-1/2 than when the line is 1-1/2. Likewise for being more careful at 7-1/2 vs 8-1/2.

But this is all theory. How do we interpret the line? For instance, if "squares" move the line from 2-1/2 to 3-1/2 Sunday morning, then maybe the "real line" should be 2-1/2, and you've only lost the 1% from the 9 by teasing early. Still profitable, just not optimal.

If the "real" line should be 2-1/2 and you can get 3-1/2 at -110, then your teaser bet from 2-1/2 should win .76^2, or about 58% of the time, but a straight bet on the dog + 3-1/2 would win 60% of the time.

It's not an easy question to answer.

Messages In This Thread

When To Bet a Teaser -- Goats -- 4 Sep 01, 1:01 pm

Some thoughts. -- James -- 4 Sep 01, 1:59 pm

Table 26 - opening lines? -- phil palmer -- 4 Sep 01, 2:24 pm

when to tease -- Don Peszynski -- 4 Sep 01, 8:19 pm

Anyone else care to put their $.02 in? I'd really like some more opinions! (nt) -- Goats -- 5 Sep 01, 8:05 am

NFL Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press