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Table 26 - opening lines?

Posted By: phil palmer
Date: 4 Sep 01, 2:24 pm

In Response To: When To Bet a Teaser (Goats)

I was wondering the same thing. Are the numbers in table 26(pg 261) in SSB based on the opening line or the line at game time?

On a related note I was also wondering about the following. On page 271 there is a section titled "relating 6, 6.5 & 7 point teasers". In this section Wong states that he thinks the reason the cover rate for 7pt teasers during the 1999-2000 season falls between the cover rate for 6pt and 6.5pt teasers is due to a sampling error. He further goes on to explain that once future results are factored in it is expected that the cover rate for 7pt teasers will rise, or the cover rate of 6.5pt teasers will fall. This leads to two questions:

1. Should we be conservative when betting 6.5pt teasers using the data in SSB, and somewhat more liberal when betting 7pt teasers?

2. Could the results from previous season(s) be used to determine if the cover rate for 7pt teasers is indeed low, or if the cover rate for 6.5pt teasers was unusually high in the 1999-2000 season?

The cover rate of home dogs +1.5-+2.5 for 6pt teasers seems very high at 82.2%. The cover rate of home favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 is also quite high at 79.8% Is there any chance the cover rate for 6pt teasers was abnormally high, altering the expected relationship between the three sets of data? Would evaluating the cover rates of 5 or 8 point teasers give us additional reference points to use in estimating the true relationship between 6, 6.5 and 7pt teasers. Phil

Messages In This Thread

When To Bet a Teaser -- Goats -- 4 Sep 01, 1:01 pm

Some thoughts. -- James -- 4 Sep 01, 1:59 pm

Table 26 - opening lines? -- phil palmer -- 4 Sep 01, 2:24 pm

when to tease -- Don Peszynski -- 4 Sep 01, 8:19 pm

Anyone else care to put their $.02 in? I'd really like some more opinions! (nt) -- Goats -- 5 Sep 01, 8:05 am

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