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Good post and compromise suggestion

Posted By: John May
Date: 4 Sep 01, 4:22 am

In Response To: BJ Sports (docriver)

A compromise might be acceptable here: with my own wagers I record not only success and failure but whether my hypothesis is vindicated or not. The two things are of course, not always the same. Much of sport is random and inherently unpredictable. We are only interested in the part of sport that is predictable. If we lose our wager because of the part that is random, or win our wager because of the part that is random, does not matter when assessing handicapping skill.

With pure math formula systems you can actually separate signal from noise perfectly and obtain statistical significance much quicker. As I understand it Wong's methods are not that crude. However he, or ideally some independent souce, can say "yes my judgement is vindicated" or "it was not vindicated" without giving away his methodology or devaluing his methods. Sometimes you will get differences of opinion on this obviously, in which case subscribers won't be slow to say so, but even allowing for that, you can be certain this is going to provide a much more precise indication of ability than raw picks.

Messages In This Thread

My picks for this weekend's games -- Stanford Wong -- 1 Sep 01, 10:19 am

Where?? -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Sep 01, 2:53 pm

I priced the game on Monday because I thought the spread might drop. (nt) -- Stanford Wong -- 1 Sep 01, 3:51 pm

Unfortunately, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Sep 01, 8:00 pm

Once again Don, you..... -- DowntownMan -- 1 Sep 01, 8:23 pm

No, it couldn't -- Don Schlesinger -- 2 Sep 01, 9:39 am

sometimes you can't tell... -- docriver -- 1 Sep 01, 9:02 pm

Easy to tell with me -- Don Schlesinger -- 2 Sep 01, 9:38 am

S. Car -18???? -- Flipper -- 2 Sep 01, 8:10 am

I'm just thankful for the failed 2pt conversion -- James -- 2 Sep 01, 8:44 am

Wagerline.com no longer lists those details -- Stanford Wong -- 2 Sep 01, 11:27 am

recorded line moves -- phil palmer -- 3 Sep 01, 2:29 pm

We hope to show Vegas Insider odds here (nt) -- Stanford Wong -- 3 Sep 01, 3:22 pm

IE Platinum -- Colin Caster -- 3 Sep 01, 4:31 pm

IE platinum?? -- phil palmer -- 3 Sep 01, 8:17 pm

Sorry, Phil. Here's the link: -- Colin Caster -- 3 Sep 01, 8:46 pm

S. Carolina -18 -- Razor -- 2 Sep 01, 12:54 pm

Results: 6-1-1 vs neutral line, or 7-1 with shopping -- Stanford Wong -- 2 Sep 01, 10:20 pm

And, just think . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 3 Sep 01, 8:34 am

Great start Stanford but can you provide reasoning behind your selections? (nt) -- Flipper -- 3 Sep 01, 10:07 am

Can I? yes. Will I? Maybe. -- Stanford Wong -- 3 Sep 01, 10:56 am

that's too bad -- docriver -- 3 Sep 01, 9:08 pm

I understand what you are saying, and I agree -- Stanford Wong -- 3 Sep 01, 10:15 pm

BJ Sports -- docriver -- 3 Sep 01, 11:09 pm

Good post and compromise suggestion -- John May -- 4 Sep 01, 4:22 am

Touche!! -- Don Schlesinger -- 4 Sep 01, 11:25 am

docriver, you've made tens of millions -- Compador -- 4 Sep 01, 4:43 pm

Let me guess . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 4 Sep 01, 5:08 pm

yes and no -- docriver -- 4 Sep 01, 6:40 pm

doc, SW wants it both ways -- big nguyen -- 6 Sep 01, 12:15 pm

Hey Stanford! -- Carly Simon -- 4 Sep 01, 5:00 am

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