NFL Forum

BJ Sports

Posted By: docriver
Date: 3 Sep 01, 11:09 pm

In Response To: I understand what you are saying, and I agree (Stanford Wong)

"I agree. Give me a few years to establish a track record. Ignore my decades of success at other ways to win money from casinos."

Winning at other casino games and winning at sports games may be correlated, but I don't think that correlation is very high. I've made tens of millions trading equity options. But to tell you the truth, that doesn't mean anyone should expect to profit from me giving them stock tips. (for those of you who may not know about options...it is very possible, for one to make lots of money trading options with zero opinion about stock direction). For the uninformed (like my relatives), knowledge of options on stocks equals knowledge of stocks. I know better, the correlation may be zero. I also think that supreme knowledge of blackjack, poker, roulette, craps, etc...does not necessearly mean any knowledge fo sports wagering. So, yes, I am sorry to say, but I will ignore your "decades of success at other ways to win money from casinos" when it comes to sports...but not when it comes to BJ!

" Attach zero weight to the fact that I have won money on my football bets every week during the NFL preseason on bets documented here on SharpSportsBetting.com. Ignore my book, as it gives you no clues as to my thought processes. "

The preseason bets you made and your book was the same thing to me : Teasers. Good stuff, one good thought....I've been taught a new way to fish. Worth the weight of the book in gold no doubt. This is the stuff I'm looking for. Most things aren't this clear cut. Most things change as the days, weeks and years change. Its stuff like that where discussion and reasoning and analytics is valuable.

But I don't recall any other wagers you made this preseason....unless you are counting the College Football Starter stuff...but that was just a handful of games. Good record, sure...but frankly, means little when it comes to predicting your future record. Need more input.

"Here's another thought. Since you prefer to not make decisions based on limited information and instead would rather wait for the numbers to become significant, blackjack might be a better game for you. Blackjack has been analyzed and simulated to the point where all the decisions are significant. You don't have to wait years to learn whether one counting system is better than another, or whether you can make more money at single deck or shoe games. "

I'll assume that was meant as a suggestion for me and nothing beyond that. I do play bj from time to time, and I do try the counting systems. but i don't enjoy it much, and i don't go to vegas much, as i get plenty of other pos ev gambling activity elsewhere close to home. Thanks. I do beleive it is possible to beat sports. And I do think there is a chance you can do it...but that belief is currently not worth $49 to me .... it may be if I can "read" your thoughts. Sure, the book is a good start...but not enough for me yet.

Don't ignore the fact that I have already stated, and have indeed paid for Fezzik's NFL forum. I didn't see tons of win/loss records from him...in fact, he could be a losing player for all I know. It is not his record that I care that much about in the long haul. It is his analytical thinking that I often find interesting and useful. I would have not had known that unless he had posted reasons for his picks. And by the way, I trust you have an analytical mind...but I also believe that having an analytical mind does not necessarily man that is useful in sports wagering (as mentined above).

Let's turn it around the other way. What would make you believe in someone? Believe them enuff to think their info is worth $49?

For me, it is simply an idea of how the guy thinks. I wouldn't care to hear Bill Gates' thoughts on sports wagering, unless I had some idea how his mind connects with sports. I hope I am getting through what I am trying to say.

All I'm asking is that you state your reasons after the fact. For example, just copy your posts in your forums unto the free ones after the game has been played (for those that you do post reasons too). Maybe that is not useful to you for whatever reason...but that is where it is useful to me, and that's what I would like to see from the hosts. Whether or not you guys want to do it is, obviously, up to you.

Messages In This Thread

My picks for this weekend's games -- Stanford Wong -- 1 Sep 01, 10:19 am

Where?? -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Sep 01, 2:53 pm

I priced the game on Monday because I thought the spread might drop. (nt) -- Stanford Wong -- 1 Sep 01, 3:51 pm

Unfortunately, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Sep 01, 8:00 pm

Once again Don, you..... -- DowntownMan -- 1 Sep 01, 8:23 pm

No, it couldn't -- Don Schlesinger -- 2 Sep 01, 9:39 am

sometimes you can't tell... -- docriver -- 1 Sep 01, 9:02 pm

Easy to tell with me -- Don Schlesinger -- 2 Sep 01, 9:38 am

S. Car -18???? -- Flipper -- 2 Sep 01, 8:10 am

I'm just thankful for the failed 2pt conversion -- James -- 2 Sep 01, 8:44 am

Wagerline.com no longer lists those details -- Stanford Wong -- 2 Sep 01, 11:27 am

recorded line moves -- phil palmer -- 3 Sep 01, 2:29 pm

We hope to show Vegas Insider odds here (nt) -- Stanford Wong -- 3 Sep 01, 3:22 pm

IE Platinum -- Colin Caster -- 3 Sep 01, 4:31 pm

IE platinum?? -- phil palmer -- 3 Sep 01, 8:17 pm

Sorry, Phil. Here's the link: -- Colin Caster -- 3 Sep 01, 8:46 pm

S. Carolina -18 -- Razor -- 2 Sep 01, 12:54 pm

Results: 6-1-1 vs neutral line, or 7-1 with shopping -- Stanford Wong -- 2 Sep 01, 10:20 pm

And, just think . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 3 Sep 01, 8:34 am

Great start Stanford but can you provide reasoning behind your selections? (nt) -- Flipper -- 3 Sep 01, 10:07 am

Can I? yes. Will I? Maybe. -- Stanford Wong -- 3 Sep 01, 10:56 am

that's too bad -- docriver -- 3 Sep 01, 9:08 pm

I understand what you are saying, and I agree -- Stanford Wong -- 3 Sep 01, 10:15 pm

BJ Sports -- docriver -- 3 Sep 01, 11:09 pm

Good post and compromise suggestion -- John May -- 4 Sep 01, 4:22 am

Touche!! -- Don Schlesinger -- 4 Sep 01, 11:25 am

docriver, you've made tens of millions -- Compador -- 4 Sep 01, 4:43 pm

Let me guess . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 4 Sep 01, 5:08 pm

yes and no -- docriver -- 4 Sep 01, 6:40 pm

doc, SW wants it both ways -- big nguyen -- 6 Sep 01, 12:15 pm

Hey Stanford! -- Carly Simon -- 4 Sep 01, 5:00 am

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