NFL Forum

SF/SD, the most exciting finish of the year?

Posted By: fezzik
Date: 12 Aug 01, 12:24 am

For those (most) of you who missed it, the SF/SD finish was an awesome example of the (holy) roller coaster ride most bettors face on a weekly basis.

The Facts: SD -2 to -2.5 vs. SanFrancisco (although many of the "good" bettors out there likely were playing SF on the ML, or bought up to +3 and +3.5, or best yet, teased to +8 or +8.5)

SD trails 21-17 late, and the SF bettor who has bought up to 3.5 is already in line to be paid next to the SF +8 teaser bettor. Then SF kicks a late field goal to make it 24-17 and things start getting whacky. The SD bettor thinks "I'm still alive, just a TD, and an OT Fg from the cover". The SF +2.5 bettor is a little concerned about the above. The SF +3.5 bettor is thinking there may be some way to lose, but it's so unlikely it has only a 5% chance to happen. And the SF +8 bettor is already figuring which team to bet on tomorrow with the winnings.

SD converts a 4th and 19 very late, and gets in the endzone shortly after. The SD chalkeater starts doing cartwheels. The SF +2.5 bettor is cursing and the SF +3.5 bettor is not very concerned. Then, the SD bettor starts cursing again when he sees SD going for 2! Lowering his cover chance from maybe 55% to some really low number. Amazingly, they convert and the SF Moneyline bettor is cursing. At this point, the SF teasor bettor gets a slight bit of trepidation realizing that 7 points will shoot his teaser down to a tie. But with 30 seconds left, then 20 seconds, could it possibly happen?

Oh Yeah. "It" could. SF gets picked with 12 seconds left, and the SD lineman is rushing towards the endzone like he is Carl Lewis's little brother. He .......could.......go .......all ........the .......way?

Amazingly, he is stripped on the 1 yard line by a Beebe descendant (obviously looking to do whatever it takes to make the team). It's looooooooose in the end zone. Out of nowhere comes another SD lineman to jump on the ball (he looks suspiciously like Joe Lupo, the stardust sportbook director, looking to shoot down those damn SF teasers). Touchdown! SF 31 (soon to be 32) -24 SD. Touchdown?

Fade back to the Holy Roller. SD bettors got screwed 20 years ago by a Kenny Stabler forward fumble recovered in the endzone. Stabler looks 90 now, and the Snake still haunts the Chargers. Due mostly to that game, no player (even a defensive one!) can recover a teammates fumble in the end zone and get credit for the yardage gathered post fumble. No TD. The scoreboard goes back to 25-24. Joe Lupo files a useless complaint to the Nevada Gaming Board.

But there are this 8 seconds to go and SD is on the 1, in front of their fans. Do they line up in a "qb Kneel" formation? NO! The RB is just where he normally stands, obviously preparing to run in the covering TD on the next play. But it does not happen. The knee is taken and the SD chalk eater,curses Ken Stabler and those hated Raiders.

He decides to look in on his Raiders on CBS. They are ahead 10-7 which infuriates him, since they are about to win, but not cover his -4 bet. But wait! AZ is driving......right into their own endzone. After trying unsuccesfully for 4 plays to punch the ball in for a safety, they turn it over on their own 5 with a timeout and 1:18 left. Surely the Raiders will at least run 1 or 2 plays before a knee right? Surely Zona will use their timeout? Nope. 10-7 final.

These games help greatly illustrate three key points when betting the NFL:

1. Many of the ATS results are decided by luck alone.
2. Get the best number possible on any game bet, it may save you.
3. All things being equal, it is bettor to be a chalk getter than a chalk eater.
4. Be careful betting any Raiders game.

"I like the Raiders, because they cheat" (Lisa Simpson, the Simpsons)

Messages In This Thread

SF/SD, the most exciting finish of the year? -- fezzik -- 12 Aug 01, 12:24 am

I wasn't worried. -- James -- 12 Aug 01, 2:47 am

You certainly shouldn't have been because.... -- Editor -- 12 Aug 01, 3:58 pm

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