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Then Don S. is a bad "monitor"

Posted By: Kim Lee
Date: 28 Aug 01, 3:04 pm

In Response To: Gordan's early 1996 Performance (fezzik)

But this doesn't make Don a bad person (grin). This really demonstrates what a monitor should do and should not do. First Don S. made vague casual statements like 57% for 20 years. Then Don acknowledged he only knew the 5-year record of 57.1%. Then he admitted he had only personally observed 56% picks for 4 years. Don claimed the lines "looked" fair, but now Dan seems to have grabbed an extra half point on most games. If this year is representative then Don clearly did not check lines. This doesn't shock you if you already know Don doesn't bet.

Anyway, after a 2% adjustment for line shopping it appears Don only observed around 400 picks hitting 54% against the closing line. There is a 26% one-tailed probability this would occur by chance for a breakeven 52.38% handicapper, and a 5% one-tailed probability this would occur by chance for a random handicapper. It is amazing how a statistically astounding record deteriorates under a little sunlight.
Good job Fezzik!

If you are going to buy Dan's picks (or any other) then buy them because he is a knowledgeable bettor, not because of the 5-year record or Don's recommendation.

Messages In This Thread

Gordan's early 1996 Performance -- fezzik -- 27 Aug 01, 10:10 pm
Your post ends after five games into week 5 -- Stanford Wong -- 28 Aug 01, 6:53 am
5 games was enough -- fezzik -- 29 Aug 01, 12:11 am
That's GORDON, not Gordan. -- James -- 28 Aug 01, 7:57 am
Then Don S. is a bad "monitor" -- Kim Lee -- 28 Aug 01, 3:04 pm
Your analysis is patently ridiculous -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Aug 01, 5:15 pm
everyone against Don -- docriver -- 28 Aug 01, 7:17 pm
Double Standard! -- fezzik -- 28 Aug 01, 9:45 pm
I don't need a touts picks if I'm line shopping -- John May -- 29 Aug 01, 11:55 am
IMHO Dan is a good tout -- Kim Lee -- 29 Aug 01, 6:29 pm
A "good" tout? -- John May -- 30 Aug 01, 3:46 am
One out of two isn't bad -- Don Schlesinger -- 30 Aug 01, 6:16 am
Typo. Sorry. -- Don Schlesinger -- 30 Aug 01, 6:31 am
Touting vs handicapping -- John May -- 31 Aug 01, 4:40 am
Infinite capacity -- Don Schlesinger -- 31 Aug 01, 7:50 am
RGE vs SSB -- John May -- 1 Sep 01, 3:30 am
Entitled to opinion -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Sep 01, 2:56 pm
In light of your post above -- John May -- 1 Sep 01, 4:28 pm
Decent of you. Thank you. -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Sep 01, 8:02 pm
No misleading information whatsoever -- Don Schlesinger -- 30 Aug 01, 6:09 am

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