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Gordan's early 1996 Performance

Posted By: fezzik
Date: 27 Aug 01, 10:10 pm

In an attempt to quantify how Dan is achieving a 57%+ ATS record I dug out my Marc Lawrence Playbook. Below, I show Dan's bet spreads (which he disloses are from active shopping) vs. what Lawrence published as the closing spread as the next number. In fairness to Dan, I threw out any game he cited as betting early and the line moved against him. I also put in my best estimate of what a bettor could expect as a winning percentage given the closing numbers were the true median.

My conclusions:

A shopping dart thrower would have hit 52% randomly playing Dan's picks. This rings so true it's scary, because I have always told my clients that if you are laying 11/10 you would just about break even just by scalping the extra 1/2 point and occasional point here and there. Also, he does not always get help, just sometimes. His experience mimics mine own. I believed him before and I believe him after.

If Dan has historically hit 57% ATS the last 10 years on his bets, I think it safe to assume he's nailing 55% vs. market lines, and adding 2% extra from shopping. So what is our best estimate of his performance in 2001 GIVEN we accept all this? A slight regression to the mean estimate is in order. I leave it to readers to insert what that adjustment would be (anywhere from 0 to 1.5% would likely be reasonable). Since Don says this guy is so rock solid, I'll use a modest .5% adjustment and I'll back the 55% down to 54.5% for his expected performance ATS vs. market lines. What do you know. That was my wild guess assumption before I started all this. Of course, any reader backing him with 3-4 outs would likely get some line value (not as much as Dan), and sky just over 55% as their best guess of what percentage they could expect to hit given they play Dan's picks.

Throw that 55+% into the trashcan if Dan's picks move the line 1 point on average against him before his backers can get the bets in. Then they will be right back to 52% and treading water. But I don't think Dan is that big an influence (yet!).

1996 Details follow below:
Gordan bet followed by Lawrence line and approximate probability Gordan bet would cover given Lawence line was "correct" true median (which of course it was not).

Week1:

Chi +3 (market 3). 50%
Car +3 (market 3). 50%
TB +8 (7) 54%

Week2:

Wash +1 (pick) 51%
Bucs +12.5 (12) 51%
Cards +6.5 (6) 52%

Week3:

Rav +4 (+3.5) 52%
Sea +4 (+3.5) 52%
Bills +3 (3) 50%
Bucs +14 (13.5) 52.5%
SD +9 (8.5) 50.5%
NYJ +13.5 (13) 51%
AZ +10.5 (10) 52.5%

Week4:

Browns+6 (5) 53%
SD +3.5 (3) 56%
Chi +6 (5) 53%

Week 5:

NYG +6 (5.5) +52%
Rams +1.5 (-2)........ I think this was a line move during the week so I didn't count it.
Bucs +7 (6.5) 53%
Jax +3 (2.5) 56%
Boys +3 (3) 50%

Messages In This Thread

Gordan's early 1996 Performance -- fezzik -- 27 Aug 01, 10:10 pm

Your post ends after five games into week 5 -- Stanford Wong -- 28 Aug 01, 6:53 am

5 games was enough -- fezzik -- 29 Aug 01, 12:11 am

That's GORDON, not Gordan. -- James -- 28 Aug 01, 7:57 am

Then Don S. is a bad "monitor" -- Kim Lee -- 28 Aug 01, 3:04 pm

Your analysis is patently ridiculous -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Aug 01, 5:15 pm

everyone against Don -- docriver -- 28 Aug 01, 7:17 pm

Double Standard! -- fezzik -- 28 Aug 01, 9:45 pm

I don't need a touts picks if I'm line shopping -- John May -- 29 Aug 01, 11:55 am

IMHO Dan is a good tout -- Kim Lee -- 29 Aug 01, 6:29 pm

A "good" tout? -- John May -- 30 Aug 01, 3:46 am

One out of two isn't bad -- Don Schlesinger -- 30 Aug 01, 6:16 am

Typo. Sorry. -- Don Schlesinger -- 30 Aug 01, 6:31 am

Touting vs handicapping -- John May -- 31 Aug 01, 4:40 am

Infinite capacity -- Don Schlesinger -- 31 Aug 01, 7:50 am

RGE vs SSB -- John May -- 1 Sep 01, 3:30 am

Entitled to opinion -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Sep 01, 2:56 pm

In light of your post above -- John May -- 1 Sep 01, 4:28 pm

Decent of you. Thank you. -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Sep 01, 8:02 pm

No misleading information whatsoever -- Don Schlesinger -- 30 Aug 01, 6:09 am

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